Beyond conventional metrics: the elusive impact of the Pilares program on crime in Mexico City

IF 1.8 2区社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Journal of Experimental Criminology Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI:10.1007/s11292-024-09656-3

Carlos Vilalta, Oscar Sanchez-Siordia, Pablo Lopez-Ramirez, Gustavo Fondevila

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Abstract

Objectives

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the Pilares community program on crime rates and crime harm in Mexico City during the period from 2019 to 2023.

Methods

Employing a staggered difference-in-differences methodology, we examined the effects of the Pilares program on three crime metrics—Crime Rate (CR), Crime Harm per Resident (CHIP), and Crime Harm per Victim (CHIV)—within 10-block and 20-block areas surrounding the Pilares centers.

Results

The analysis did not detect statistically significant changes in the CR, CHIP, or CHIV that could be attributed to the Pilares program. Unexpectedly, a slight increase in the CR was observed in 2023 within the 20-block areas surrounding the program sites.

Conclusions

The results of our analysis suggest that the Pilares program did not impact crime rates or related harm within the evaluated timeframe. This finding underscores the complexities involved in assessing community-based interventions in high-crime vulnerable areas.

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超越传统指标：皮拉雷斯计划对墨西哥城犯罪的难以捉摸的影响

本研究的目的是评估皮拉雷斯社区计划在2019年至2023年期间对墨西哥城犯罪率和犯罪危害的影响。方法采用交错差中差方法，我们在皮拉雷斯中心周围的10个街区和20个街区范围内检查了皮拉雷斯项目对三个犯罪指标的影响——犯罪率（CR）、每位居民的犯罪伤害（CHIP）和每位受害者的犯罪伤害（CHIV）。结果分析未发现可归因于Pilares计划的CR、CHIP或CHIV的统计学显著变化。出乎意料的是，在2023年，在项目场地周围的20个街区区域内，观察到CR略有增加。结论：我们的分析结果表明，在评估的时间框架内，皮拉雷斯计划没有影响犯罪率或相关危害。这一发现强调了在高犯罪率脆弱地区评估社区干预措施的复杂性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Experimental Criminology CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Experimental Criminology focuses on high quality experimental and quasi-experimental research in the advancement of criminological theory and/or the development of evidence based crime and justice policy. The journal is also committed to the advancement of the science of systematic reviews and experimental methods in criminology and criminal justice. The journal seeks empirical papers on experimental and quasi-experimental studies, systematic reviews on substantive criminological and criminal justice issues, and methodological papers on experimentation and systematic review. The journal encourages submissions from scholars in the broad array of scientific disciplines that are concerned with criminology as well as crime and justice problems.