Comparative Analysis of GloSea6 Hindcasts for Two Extreme El Niño Events and Their Impact on Indo-Western North Pacific Climate

Abstract

In this study, GloSea6 hindcast (HCST) from the UK Met Office is used to investigate the model prediction skill for the impacts on the East Asian summer associated with two extreme El Niño cases (1997/1998 and 2015/2016). For the 1998 case, we found that GloSea6 model is able to predict the ocean–atmosphere circulations one to two seasons ahead, including the anomalously positive sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the anomalous anticyclone (AAC) in the Western North Pacific during the spring and summer seasons. However, for the 2016 case it fails to capture the observed fast cooling of the spring TIO SST and the rapid decaying of the summer AAC, due to an overestimated linkage between the summer TIO and the precedent winter El Niño. Physically, the exaggerated model SST warming over both the eastern and western Indian Ocean suppresses the development of the surface westerly wind that enhances the summer monsoon flow in the TIO and cools the warmed SST as in the real world. According to further analysis, the sensitivity of the TIO is linked to the formation of the spring AAC, which is influenced by the longitudinal position of warm Pacific SST, causing the HCST to display a more idealized El Niño-TIO-AAC teleconnection than the observations. Thus, simulating the decaying El Niño and its teleconnection to the TIO is crucial for reliable seasonal forecasts of East Asian climate during post-El Niño summers.