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Investigating Fuel Efficiency of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Platooning Using a CFD Model
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00390-y
EunRyoung Kim, Yeri Kang, Ha Hwang, Jae-Jin Kim, Chang-Keun Song

Platooning represents a crucial strategy for mitigating emissions from heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). This study evaluates the effects of platoon composition on the surrounding airflow utilizing a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, and quantifies the resultant fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions. This study examines fuel consumption data reconstructed from field experiments to validate the CFD model’s ability to accurately simulate drag forces within a homogeneous three-truck platoon. The potential for fuel savings was assessed based on CFD-simulated fuel consumption, taking into account various inter-vehicle distances and driving speeds. The model successfully reproduced the fuel consumption observed in a platooning formation comprising lead, middle, and trailing trucks, with an error margin below 6.2%. Fuel consumption analysis shows that while lead and middle trucks consume more fuel with increased inter-vehicle distances, the trailing truck's consumption decreases at specific distance-to-length ratios (D/L), increasing again beyond a D/L of 1.1. Additionally, a significant decrease in total fuel efficiency was noted for D/L ratios exceeding 1.5. Considering the diverse platooning scenarios analyzed, the study anticipates an annual reduction of up to 7 tons of CO2 equivalent per vehicle. By optimizing platooning configurations, this research contributes to enhancing fuel efficiency and reducing emissions from HDVs.

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引用次数: 0
Role of the Pacific-Japan Pattern in Shaping Sri Lanka Rainfall 太平洋-日本模式对斯里兰卡降雨的影响
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00389-5
Pathmarasa Kajakokulan

Recent studies have shown that the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern is the dominant climate mode and has a relationship with rainfall anomalies in East Asia. However, the influence of the PJ pattern on the rainfall of Sri Lanka remains largely unclear. Therefore, the present study examines the impact of the PJ pattern on the rainfall of Sri Lanka during the boreal summer utilizing observational and reanalysis datasets from 1981 to 2020. It is noted that the PJ pattern has a significant positive relationship with rainfall in Sri Lanka during the boreal summer. Furthermore, based on the composite analysis, we found that Sri Lanka experiences wet conditions during the positive phase of the PJ pattern in the summer, while the negative phase of the PJ pattern contributes to dry conditions. During the positive phase of the PJ pattern, moisture convergence over Sri Lanka is associated with the easterlies extending from the southern flank of Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which results in enhanced convection and wet conditions over Sri Lanka. On the other hand, moisture divergence over Sri Lanka is linked with the westerlies extending from the southern flank of the Western North Pacific anomalous cyclonic circulation, decreasing the convection and dry conditions over Sri Lanka. This study suggests that the PJ pattern is a significant climate mode for understanding the rainfall pattern in Sri Lanka.

近年来的研究表明,太平洋-日本(PJ)型是东亚地区的主导气候型,并与东亚地区的降水异常有关。然而,PJ模式对斯里兰卡降雨的影响在很大程度上仍不清楚。因此,本研究利用1981 - 2020年的观测和再分析资料,探讨了PJ模式对斯里兰卡北部夏季降水的影响。值得注意的是,PJ型与斯里兰卡北部夏季的降雨量有显著的正相关。此外,基于综合分析,我们发现斯里兰卡在夏季PJ型正相期间经历了潮湿条件,而PJ型负相有助于干燥条件。在PJ型正相期间,斯里兰卡上空的水汽辐合与北太平洋西部异常反气旋环流南侧延伸的东风有关,这导致斯里兰卡上空对流增强和潮湿条件。另一方面,斯里兰卡上空的水汽辐散与北太平洋西部异常气旋环流南侧延伸的西风带有关,减少了斯里兰卡上空的对流和干燥条件。该研究表明,PJ模式是理解斯里兰卡降雨模式的重要气候模式。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Representation on Extended Medium-Range Forecasting: a Case Study of the 2016 Barents-Kara Sea Warming Event 北极海冰表征对扩展中期预测的影响——以2016年巴伦支-喀拉海变暖事件为例
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00387-z
Jung Hyun Park, Hyun-Joon Sung, Myung-Seo Koo, Junseong Park, Rae-Seol Park, Kwang-Hee Han, Ji-Han Sim, Hyo-Jung Lee, Hayeon Noh, Baek-Min Kim

In early January 2016, Storm Frank, an extreme winter storm with a peak intensity of 928 hPa, intruded into the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. This led to unprecedented warming and significant sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Sea. Following this extreme warming event, a series of extreme weather events occurred in mid- and late-January across Eurasia, including a persistent blocking pattern near the Ural mountains and extreme cold wave events over Mongolia, China, and Korea. This study utilizes the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), coupled with an ocean-sea ice model, to reproduce this event and to examine its extended medium-range forecasting performance. While the control model effectively captures the initial Arctic warming, it struggles to reproduce the observed sustained warming that lasted over two weeks. Here, we identified that the model significantly overestimates the sea ice concentration in the B-K Sea, where the initial warming is more pronounced in observations. Through sensitivity experiments, we found that reducing the sea ice strength parameter, which governs the ice resistance to pressure and deformation, effectively alleviated this overestimation. This adjustment facilitates easier sea ice melting, strengthens the ocean-atmosphere interactions, and extends the duration of simulated Arctic warming. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of accurate Arctic sea ice representation in extended medium-range forecasting for East Asia, particularly for extreme weather events.

2016年1月初,一场峰值强度为928 hPa的极端冬季风暴“弗兰克”侵入北极大西洋区。这导致了前所未有的变暖和巴伦支-喀拉海(B-K)海冰的显著减少。在这次极端变暖事件之后,1月中下旬欧亚大陆发生了一系列极端天气事件,包括乌拉尔山脉附近的持续阻塞模式和蒙古、中国和韩国的极端寒潮事件。本研究利用韩国综合模式(KIM),结合一个海洋-海冰模式,重现了这一事件,并检验了其扩展的中期预测性能。虽然控制模型有效地捕获了北极最初的变暖,但它很难重现观测到的持续两周以上的变暖。在这里,我们发现该模式明显高估了B-K海的海冰浓度,在观测中,B-K海的初始变暖更为明显。通过敏感性实验,我们发现减小控制海冰抗压和抗变形能力的海冰强度参数可以有效地缓解这种高估。这种调整促进了海冰更容易融化,加强了海洋与大气的相互作用,并延长了模拟北极变暖的持续时间。我们的研究结果强调了准确的北极海冰在东亚中期预测中的关键作用,特别是对极端天气事件的预测。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Analysis of GloSea6 Hindcasts for Two Extreme El Niño Events and Their Impact on Indo-Western North Pacific Climate 两次极端El Niño事件GloSea6预报的对比分析及其对北太平洋印度洋-西部气候的影响
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00388-y
Seung-Hwon Hyun, Seung-On Hwang, Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Yu-Kyung Hyun

In this study, GloSea6 hindcast (HCST) from the UK Met Office is used to investigate the model prediction skill for the impacts on the East Asian summer associated with two extreme El Niño cases (1997/1998 and 2015/2016). For the 1998 case, we found that GloSea6 model is able to predict the ocean–atmosphere circulations one to two seasons ahead, including the anomalously positive sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the anomalous anticyclone (AAC) in the Western North Pacific during the spring and summer seasons. However, for the 2016 case it fails to capture the observed fast cooling of the spring TIO SST and the rapid decaying of the summer AAC, due to an overestimated linkage between the summer TIO and the precedent winter El Niño. Physically, the exaggerated model SST warming over both the eastern and western Indian Ocean suppresses the development of the surface westerly wind that enhances the summer monsoon flow in the TIO and cools the warmed SST as in the real world. According to further analysis, the sensitivity of the TIO is linked to the formation of the spring AAC, which is influenced by the longitudinal position of warm Pacific SST, causing the HCST to display a more idealized El Niño-TIO-AAC teleconnection than the observations. Thus, simulating the decaying El Niño and its teleconnection to the TIO is crucial for reliable seasonal forecasts of East Asian climate during post-El Niño summers.

本研究利用英国气象局的GloSea6 hindcast (HCST)数据,研究了两个极端El Niño事件(1997/1998和2015/2016)对东亚夏季影响的模式预测技巧。对于1998年的情况,GloSea6模式能够提前1 ~ 2个季节预测海气环流,包括热带印度洋(TIO)海温异常正(SST)和北太平洋西部春夏季的异常反气旋(AAC)。然而,对于2016年的情况,由于高估了夏季TIO与先前冬季El Niño之间的联系,它未能捕捉到观测到的春季TIO海表温度的快速冷却和夏季AAC的快速衰减。从物理上讲,东印度洋和西印度洋的模式海温变暖被夸大,抑制了地面西风的发展,而西风增强了东印度洋的夏季风流动,并使升温的海温像现实世界一样变冷。进一步分析,TIO的灵敏度与春季AAC的形成有关,而春季AAC受暖太平洋海温的纵向位置影响,导致HCST表现出比观测更理想的El Niño-TIO-AAC遥相关。因此,模拟El Niño衰减及其与TIO的遥相关对于可靠地预测El Niño后夏季东亚气候至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Microphysical Characteristics of Snowfall in Seoul, South Korea and Their Changes with Meteorological Conditions 韩国首尔降雪的微物理特征及其随气象条件的变化
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-29 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00385-1
Seong-Ho Hong, Joohyun Lee, Jong-Jin Baik

In this study, the microphysical characteristics of snowfall in Seoul, South Korea and their changes with meteorological conditions are examined using about 6-year observation data from a Parsivel disdrometer. The snow particle size distribution (PSD) exhibits convex-down shapes, being better represented by gamma distributions than exponential distributions. As snowfall rate increases, the snow PSD broadens and its peak rises. The changes in gamma PSD parameters with snowfall rate differ between the mean PSD and 1-min PSDs. The volume-weighted mean diameter Dm much more rapidly increases with snowfall rate in comparison with Dm in Beijing, China and Pyeongchang, South Korea, suggesting the relative importance of aggregation in Seoul. 77% of snowfall in Seoul occurs when northwesterly blows at the 850-hPa level. This snowfall is associated with west-high/east-low pressure patterns, large air–sea temperature differences (~ 19 °C), and shallow (≤ 2.5 km) precipitation systems, suggesting a large contribution of sea-effect snowfall from the Yellow Sea. The northwesterly-type snowfall with lower temperatures (≤ 25th percentile, COLD) and with higher temperatures (≥ 75th percentile, WARM) at the 850-hPa level is compared in the same intensity range of 0.5–1 mm h−1. Compared with the WARM snowfall, the COLD snowfall has relatively broad PSDs and less-rimed snow particles. The COLD snowfall is associated with relatively large wind shear, small static stability, low temperatures of − 21 to − 9 °C, and low humidity in the lower atmosphere, which is attributed to relatively strong northwesterly resulting in relatively strong cold and dry advection. This implies that enhanced aggregation by stronger turbulence and dendritic growths can contribute to the broader PSDs and that weakened riming for the lower temperatures might be associated with the less-rimed snow particles.

本文利用Parsivel disdrometer近6年的观测资料,研究了韩国首尔地区降雪的微物理特征及其随气象条件的变化。雪粒径分布(PSD)呈凸向下的形状,用伽马分布比指数分布更能表示。随着降雪量的增加,积雪PSD变宽,峰值升高。伽玛PSD参数随降雪率的变化在平均PSD和1 min PSD之间存在差异。与中国北京和韩国平昌的Dm相比,体积加权平均直径Dm随降雪率的增加要快得多,表明首尔的聚集相对重要,首尔77%的降雪发生在850 hpa水平的西北吹时。此次降雪与西高/东低压模式、大海气温差(~ 19℃)和浅降水(≤2.5 km)系统有关,表明黄海的海效降雪贡献很大。在0.5-1 mm h−1的相同强度范围内,比较了850-hPa水平温度较低(≤25百分位,COLD)和温度较高(≥75百分位,WARM)的西北型降雪。与WARM降雪相比,COLD降雪具有较宽的psd和较少的雪粒。此次冷降雪与较大的风切变、较小的静稳定性、- 21 ~ - 9°C的低温和低层大气湿度低有关,这是由于较强的西北风导致较强的冷干平流所致。这意味着更强的湍流和树枝状生长所增强的聚集可以导致更宽的psd,而较低温度下减弱的边缘可能与较少边缘的雪颗粒有关。
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引用次数: 0
Correction: Forecast Accuracy and Physics Sensitivity in High-Resolution Simulations of Precipitation Events in Summer 2022 by the Korean Integrated Model 更正:韩国综合模式对2022年夏季降水事件高分辨率模拟的预报精度和物理敏感性
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00384-2
Eun-Hee Lee, Sujeong Cho, Keon-Hee Cho, Ji-Young Han, Youngsu Lee, Junghan Kim
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive Analysis of PM2.5 Concentrations in the Seoul Metro Underground Stations: Relationships with Indoor Sources and Outdoor Air Quality 首尔地铁地铁站PM2.5浓度的综合分析:室内污染源和室外空气质量的关系
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00386-0
Hye-Ryun Oh, Doo-Sun R. Park, Hye-Young Ko, Jihoon Seo, Minseok Lee, Woosuk Choi

This study examined the observed PM2.5 concentration across 247 underground stations  consisting of Line-1 to Line-8 of the Seoul Metro from April 2021 to March 2023 in order to understand general characteristics of underground PM2.5 air quality. Approximately, in one-thirds of underground stations (85 stations), annual averaged PM2.5 concentration are over 35 µg m−3. Moreover, in 30 underground stations (approximately 12%), it exceeds 50 µg m−3, the recommended 24-hour maintenance standard for PM2.5 concentration in underground stations. We found that PM2.5 concentration is considerably influenced by both internal and external factors. Among the internal factors (i.e., depth, the number of passengers and operation frequency), the frequency of subway operation significantly affects changes in PM2.5 concentration however, various internal factors may act in combination. In terms of external factor, there are positive correlation coefficients (r = 0.15–0.95) between daily averaged PM2.5 concentration in underground station and that of the outdoor observatory closest to each underground station. In particular, in underground stations with high PM2.5 concentration, the correlation with outdoor PM2.5 air quality was low, suggesting that for better air quality in underground stations, we need to focus more on reducing the inherent emission from underground stations in highly polluted stations, but for less polluted stations, we need to improve outdoor air quality as well. We believe that this study may provide insights for effective future PM2.5 air quality management in underground stations.

本研究分析了2021年4月至2023年3月期间首尔地铁1号线至8号线等247个地铁站的PM2.5浓度,以了解地下PM2.5空气质量的总体特征。大约有三分之一的地铁站(85个站点)年平均PM2.5浓度超过35µg m−3。此外,在30个地铁站(约12%)中,PM2.5浓度超过了地铁站建议的24小时维护标准50µg m−3。我们发现PM2.5浓度受到内外因素的显著影响。在内部因素(即深度、客流量和运行频率)中,地铁运行频率对PM2.5浓度的变化有显著影响,但各种内部因素可能是联合作用的。外部因素方面,地铁站PM2.5日平均浓度与离地铁站最近的室外观测站PM2.5日平均浓度呈正相关(r = 0.15 ~ 0.95)。特别是在PM2.5浓度较高的地铁站,与室外PM2.5空气质量的相关性较低,这说明为了改善地铁站的空气质量,我们需要更多地关注减少高污染地铁站的地铁站固有排放,而对于污染较轻的地铁站,我们也需要改善室外空气质量。我们相信本研究可以为未来有效的地铁站PM2.5空气质量管理提供见解。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic Variations in Wind Speed Intensity Across China and Their Association with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns 中国各地风速强度的动态变化及其与大气环流模式的关系
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00383-3
Lijun Shang, Zexiang Li, Shuishi Xie, Li Huang, Lihong Meng, Xiujuan Li, Keyuan Zhong

Variations in the wind speed intensity significantly impact evapotranspiration, water cycle processes, air quality and wind utilization. Previous studies have focused primarily on changes in mean wind speed, with little research on variations in different wind speed intensities. In this paper, we defined five wind speed indices to quantify the changes in different wind speed intensities and analyzed their associations with atmospheric circulation based on daily wind speed data collected from 601 meteorological stations across China from 1960 to 2018. The wind speed indices we defined include the annual mean wind speed, the annual maximum daily mean wind speed, the number of heavy wind days, the number of gentle breeze days and the number of light breeze days. The results showed that from 1960 to 2018, the annual mean wind speed, the annual maximum daily mean wind speed, the number of heavy wind days and the number of gentle breeze days exhibited significant decreasing trends (P < 0.05). The number of light breeze days exhibited a significant increasing trend (P < 0.001) in China during the same period. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were one of the main factors affecting the changes in wind speed intensity. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the West Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHI) were significantly negatively correlated with the annual mean wind speed, the annual maximum daily mean wind speed, the number of heavy wind days and the number of gentle breeze days (P < 0.01), and the Asian Polar Vortex Intensity Index (APVI) was extremely significantly positively correlated with these four wind speed indices (P < 0.001). This suggests that monitoring and analyzing these atmospheric circulation indices can enable more accurate predictions of wind speed. These findings will provide information for climate change forecast, air pollution risk assessments and wind energy utilization.

风速强度的变化对蒸散、水循环过程、空气质量和风的利用都有重大影响。以往的研究主要关注平均风速的变化,对不同风速强度的变化研究较少。本文基于1960-2018年全国601个气象站采集的日风速数据,定义了5个风速指数来量化不同风速强度的变化,并分析其与大气环流的关联。我们定义的风速指数包括年平均风速、年最大日平均风速、大风日数、微风日数和轻风日数。结果表明,从 1960 年到 2018 年,年平均风速、年最大日平均风速、大风日数和微风日数呈显著下降趋势(P <0.05)。同期,中国的微风日数呈明显增加趋势(P < 0.001)。大尺度大气环流模式是影响风速强度变化的主要因素之一。北极涛动(AO)和西太平洋副热带高强度指数(WPSHI)与年平均风速、年最大日平均风速、大风日数和微风日数呈显著负相关(P < 0.01),亚洲极涡强度指数(APVI)与上述四个风速指数呈极显著正相关(P < 0.001)。这表明,监测和分析这些大气环流指数可以更准确地预测风速。这些发现将为气候变化预测、空气污染风险评估和风能利用提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Cloud Vertical Overlap on Cloud Radiative Effect in the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) Seasonal Simulations during Boreal Summer and Winter 韩国综合模式 (KIM) 北半球夏季和冬季季节模拟中云垂直重叠对云辐射效应的影响
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00382-4
So-Young Kim

Exponential-random vertical overlap of clouds is applied for radiative processes in a research version of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) to replace the maximum-random vertical overlap of clouds. The cloud radiative effect (CRE) increases overall when the exponential-random overlap is used. This is because vertically continuous clouds, which are assumed to overlap maximally under the maximum-random overlap assumption, can be relaxed to random overlap depending on the vertical distance between cloud layers and the specified decorrelation length of clouds. CRE is more enhanced by considering the latitudinal dependency of cloud decorrelation length based on previous observational studies. This alleviates biases in CRE, which is underestimated overall, except in the low latitudes where the CRE is overestimated in the present simulations. The interaction between radiative and convective processes plays a role in decreasing CRE over the tropical western Pacific region, where strong convections develop, although the direct impact of applying the exponential-random overlap is to decrease the vertical overlap between ice clouds. The simulation of temperature in the lower troposphere is improved owing to the changes in cloud overlap. The warm bias over the Eurasian continent, in particular, is alleviated as more shortwave fluxes are reflected due to increased CRE.

在韩国综合模式(KIM)的研究版本中,云的指数随机垂直重叠被用于辐射过程,以取代云的最大随机垂直重叠。使用指数随机重叠时,云层辐射效应(CRE)总体上有所增加。这是因为,在最大随机重叠假设下,垂直连续的云层会最大程度地重叠,而根据云层之间的垂直距离和指定的云层相关长度,可以将垂直连续的云层放宽为随机重叠。在以往观测研究的基础上,考虑云的相关长度的纬度依赖性,可进一步增强 CRE。这减轻了 CRE 的偏差,CRE 整体上被低估了,但在低纬度地区,CRE 在本次模拟中被高估了。辐射过程和对流过程之间的相互作用在降低西太平洋热带地区的 CRE 方面发挥了作用,因为该地区对流较强,尽管应用指数随机重叠的直接影响是减少了冰云之间的垂直重叠。由于云重叠的变化,对流层下部温度的模拟得到了改善。由于 CRE 增加,更多短波通量被反射,欧亚大陆上空的暖偏差尤其得到缓解。
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引用次数: 0
The Sensitivity of Extreme Rainfall Simulations to WRF Parameters During Two Intense Southwest Monsoon Events in the Philippines 菲律宾两次强烈西南季风事件期间极端降雨模拟对 WRF 参数的敏感性
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-024-00380-6
Kevin C. Henson, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has numerous model parameters that significantly affect rainfall forecasts. However, the multitude of parameters makes it challenging to identify which of these are critical for rainfall forecasting and optimization. This study utilizes the Morris One-At-a-Time (MOAT) Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to ascertain the sensitivity of the simulated rainfall and other key atmospheric variables to 23 tunable model parameters across seven physics schemes in the WRF model. The MOAT mean and standard deviation were used as sensitivity measures and calculated for two Tropical Cyclone (TC)-enhanced southwest monsoon events in August 2012 and 2013 that resulted in catastrophic flooding over Metro Manila, Philippines. Results show that of the 23 model parameters, the ones more critically important to simulating rainfall are parameters that are related to cumulus schemes such as the multiplier for downdraft mass flux rate (P3), multiplier for entrainment mass flux rate (P4), starting height of downdraft over updraft source layer (P4), and mean consumption time of convective available potential energy (P6). To investigate the optimum parameter for the simulation of rainfall for each of the two events, the root mean square error (RMSE) is computed between the simulated rainfall over Metro Manila and observed data from the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). The best performing set of parameters was able to reduce the RMSE of rainfall over Metro Manila by about 42% and 27% for the 2012 and 2013 enhanced monsoon events, respectively, relative to the default runs. For the first time, this study provides insight into which model parameters in the WRF model are critically important to the simulation of enhanced monsoon events. The results of this study may serve as a basis for future optimization studies of extreme weather events over the Philippines.

天气研究与预报(WRF)模型有许多对降雨预报有重大影响的模型参数。然而,由于参数众多,要确定其中哪些参数对降雨预报和优化至关重要具有挑战性。本研究利用莫里斯一次性(MOAT)全球敏感性分析(GSA)来确定 WRF 模型中七个物理方案的 23 个可调模型参数对模拟降雨量和其他关键大气变量的敏感性。使用 MOAT 平均值和标准偏差作为敏感性度量,并计算了 2012 年 8 月和 2013 年 8 月两次热带气旋(TC)增强的西南季风事件,这两次事件导致菲律宾大马尼拉地区发生灾难性洪水。结果表明,在 23 个模型参数中,与积云方案相关的参数对模拟降雨更为重要,如下沉气流质量通量率乘数(P3)、夹带质量通量率乘数(P4)、上升气流源层上的下沉气流起始高度(P4)和对流可用势能的平均消耗时间(P6)。为了研究模拟两个事件的降雨量的最佳参数,计算了马尼拉市上空的模拟降雨量与全球降水卫星图(GSMaP)观测数据之间的均方根误差(RMSE)。与默认运行相比,性能最佳的参数集能够将 2012 年和 2013 年增强季风事件中马尼拉市降雨量的 RMSE 分别减少约 42% 和 27%。本研究首次深入探讨了 WRF 模型中哪些模型参数对模拟增强季风事件至关重要。这项研究的结果可作为今后对菲律宾极端天气事件进行优化研究的基础。
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引用次数: 0
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Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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