Assessment of groundwater sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions using a fuzzy Delphi method

Abstract

There is significant reliance on groundwater sources in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. Ensuring the sustainable use of this vital resource is imperative and requires evaluating various attributes through appropriate indicators. While traditional methods of indicator selection often struggle with uncertainty and may overlook essential factors, this study introduces an innovative approach by employing the Fuzzy Delphi Method. This method not only refines indicator selection by addressing uncertainties but also enhances the relevance and accuracy of sustainability assessments. In the context of Iran’s Houmand Absard, where groundwater is the primary source of freshwater, this approach has proven particularly effective. Initially, 86 pragmatic indicators were identified, and a global survey of 155 researchers, combined with fuzzy analysis, reduced these to 27 critical indicators. Notably, environmental indicators emerged as the most significant, with the 'percentage of aquifer area with groundwater overexploitation problem' receiving the highest score of 0.750. This research contributes to the global discourse on groundwater sustainability by providing a more reliable and context-specific framework for indicator selection, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, thereby ensuring better-informed decision-making.