What Impact Does Net Zero Action on Road Transport and Building Heating Have on Exposure to UK Air Pollution?

Abstract

This study explores the cobenefits of reduced nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ozone (O₃), and particulate matter (PM), through net zero (NZ) climate policy in the UK. Two alternative NZ scenarios, the balanced net zero (BNZP) and widespread innovation (WI) pathways, from the UK Climate Change Committee’s Sixth Carbon Budget, were examined using a chemical transport model (CTM). Under the UK existing policy, Business as Usual (BAU), reductions in NO₂ and PM were predicted by 2030 due to new vehicle technologies but plateau by 2040. The BNZP and WI scenarios show further reductions particularly by 2040, driven by accelerated electric vehicle (EV) uptake and low-carbon heating in buildings, with the building contribution to PM reduction being 2–3 times greater than road transport. The results demonstrate that the NZ transition to EVs (cars and vans) reduces both exhaust and nonexhaust emissions, as well as reducing traffic volumes. O₃ trends are complex with a small overall increase by 2030 and a decrease by 2040. Although uncertain, 2050 predictions of BNZP showed important additional air pollution benefits. Our findings highlight the efficacy of NZ strategies, providing insights for UK and international policymakers interested in the air pollution cobenefits of climate policy.