Chinese burden of depressive disorders from 1990 to 2021 and prediction for 2030: analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021.

IF 2.7 3区心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY BMC Psychology Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI:10.1186/s40359-025-02349-0

Na Yan, Caochen Zhang, Yihan Wang, Yuhao Wang, Yunjiao Luo, Yingxue Wang, Blen Dereje Shiferaw, Louisa Esi Mackay, Jingjing Wang, Jie Tang, Qingzhi Wang, Xiuyin Gao, Wei Wang

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Abstract

Background: This study aims to examine the temporal changes in the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of depressive disorders as well as its association with age, period, and birth cohort among Chinese from 1990 to 2021, and forecast the future trends of incidence rates and numbers from 2022 to 2030.

Methods: Data for analysis were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to describe the rates of depressive disorders. Age, period, and cohort model was utilized to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on rates of depressive disorders. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was capitalized to forecast the incidence rates and numbers for different sexes and age groups from 2022 to 2030.

Results: The age-standardized incidence (ASIR, AAPC: -0.35 [95%CI: -0.65, -0.04]), prevalence (ASPR, AAPC: -0.20 [95%CI: -0.24, -0.16]), and DAYLs (AAPC: -0.28 [95%CI: -0.51, -0.05]) rates of both sexes showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, despite a volatility growth in recent years (APC in 2019-2021 of ASPR: 0.96 [95%CI: 0.70, 1.23]). Females exhibited a higher burden of depressive disorders compared to males but experienced a more rapid rate of reduction changes. The burden of depressive disorders was most owing to the age effect and period effect in recent years. The ASIR was predicted to decrease in the whole population (males in 2030: 1,546.3 per 100,000 people; females in 2030: 2,465.8 per 100,000 people), but in children, adolescents, and the elderly demonstrate unfavorable trends in the future.

Conclusion: The burden of depressive disorders decreased in China from 1990 to 2021 in terms of age-standardized rates, but increased in recent years. Children, adolescents, and the elderly are the risk groups for future depressive disorders. Considering the large population, the increasing fewer children, and the aging trend, as well as the possible long-term effects of COVID-19 on human psychological burden, more sex-age-sensitive social healthcare programs should be considered in the future to minimize the burden of depressive disorders in China.

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1990 - 2021年中国抑郁症负担及2030年预测：2021年全球疾病负担研究数据分析

背景：本研究旨在研究1990年至2021年中国抑郁症发病率、患病率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）的时间变化及其与年龄、时期和出生队列的关系，并预测2022年至2030年中国抑郁症发病率和发病人数的未来趋势。方法：分析数据来自2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）。采用联合点分析计算抑郁症的年变化百分率（APC）和平均年变化百分率（AAPC）。使用年龄、时期和队列模型来解开年龄、时期和出生队列对抑郁症发病率的影响。利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）分析预测2022年至2030年不同性别和年龄组的发病率和人数。结果：两性年龄标准化发病率（ASIR, AAPC: -0.35 [95%CI: -0.65, -0.04]）、患病率（ASPR, AAPC: -0.20 [95%CI: -0.24, -0.16]）和DAYLs （AAPC: -0.28 [95%CI: -0.51, -0.05]）率在1990 -2021年呈下降趋势，尽管近年来呈波动性增长（2019-2021年ASPR的APC: 0.96 [95%CI: 0.70, 1.23]）。与男性相比，女性表现出更高的抑郁症负担，但减少变化的速度更快。近年来抑郁症的负担主要受年龄效应和时期效应的影响。预计整个人口的ASIR将下降(2030年男性：每10万人1,546.3人；2030年的女性：每10万人中有2,465.8人)，但在儿童、青少年和老年人中显示出不利的趋势。结论：1990 - 2021年，中国抑郁症患者的年龄标准化率呈下降趋势，但近年来有所上升。儿童、青少年和老年人是未来抑郁症的危险群体。考虑到中国庞大的人口、越来越少的儿童和老龄化趋势，以及COVID-19对人类心理负担可能产生的长期影响，未来应考虑更多对性别年龄敏感的社会卫生保健计划，以尽量减少中国抑郁症的负担。

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来源期刊

BMC Psychology Psychology-Psychology (all)

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

2.80%

发文量

265

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： BMC Psychology is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers manuscripts on all aspects of psychology, human behavior and the mind, including developmental, clinical, cognitive, experimental, health and social psychology, as well as personality and individual differences. The journal welcomes quantitative and qualitative research methods, including animal studies.