A numerical evaluation of the economic tradeoff of vaccination against chikungunya virus in Brazil

IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109376
Vinicius V.L. Albani , Eduardo Massad
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Abstract

This article uses a compartmental model describing the dynamic of the chikungunya virus in populations of humans and mosquitoes with parameters fitted to the incidence in Brazil to estimate the economic trade-off of vaccination against the virus infection. The model uses time-dependent parameters to incorporate fluctuations in the transmission and the mosquito population across the years. Using the model predictions of symptomatic infections and literature data concerning the proportions of post-acute and chronic cases, the vaccination cost is compared with the disease cost. Numerical results considering different scenarios indicate that vaccination has a limited impact on reducing the disease cost assuming that vaccination is applied uniformly countrywide. We do not consider regional targets. In some scenarios, vaccinating about 10% of the population as early as possible can reduce the disease cost and is more economically efficient. Larger proportions make vaccination not viable.
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巴西基孔肯雅病毒疫苗接种经济权衡的数值评估。
本文使用一个隔间模型描述基孔肯雅病毒在人类和蚊子种群中的动态,其参数拟合巴西的发病率,以估计接种疫苗预防病毒感染的经济权衡。该模型使用与时间相关的参数,将传播和蚊子数量的波动纳入多年来的波动。利用有症状感染的模型预测和关于急性和慢性病例比例的文献数据,比较了疫苗接种成本与疾病成本。考虑不同情景的数值结果表明,在全国统一实施疫苗接种的情况下,疫苗接种对降低疾病成本的影响有限。我们不考虑区域目标。在某些情况下,尽早为大约10%的人口接种疫苗可以降低疾病成本,并更具经济效益。更大的比例使疫苗接种不可行。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences
Mathematical Biosciences 生物-生物学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
2.30%
发文量
67
审稿时长
18 days
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences publishes work providing new concepts or new understanding of biological systems using mathematical models, or methodological articles likely to find application to multiple biological systems. Papers are expected to present a major research finding of broad significance for the biological sciences, or mathematical biology. Mathematical Biosciences welcomes original research articles, letters, reviews and perspectives.
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