A study on the forecast of fine dust emissions in the future according to the introduction of eco-friendly ships

Abstract

This study analyzes the anticipated impact of the deployment of green ships on reducing air pollutant emissions. We estimated air pollutant emissions from ships in Incheon Port, South Korea, and conducted a literature review and expert interviews to analyze changes in emissions as a function of the rate at which new ships can be converted to green ships in the future. The analysis showed that the PM10 and PM2.5 emissions from ships were 40.5 tons and 37.8 tons in 2021, respectively. As a result of predicting future emissions based on the scenario of deploying green ships, we found that PM10 and PM2.5 emissions would reach 26.3 tons/year and 24.8 tons/year, respectively, in 2040. In this study, we analyzed the extent to which air pollutant emissions could be reduced through the use of green ships and the quantitative effects of new ship conversions. Findings of this study can be used as foundational data for establishing air quality management policies not only for Incheon Port and the Incheon region, but also for other port cities.