Rural revitalisation: Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem service values of second homes in Moudao, China

IF 6 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Land Use Policy Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107467

Zhenyan Lou, Xu Zhao, Cong Chen, Shengping Peng

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Abstract

Second homes are increasingly influencing regional ecological balance and economic development through the integration of rural tourism and culture. This study assesses ecosystem service values (ESV) in Moudao Town, Hubei Province, analyzing land-use changes from 2000 to 2020 and forecasting future dynamics under multi-scenario simulations. Results indicate that urbanization led to construction land expansion, slight forest growth, and reductions in grassland and water bodies, causing fluctuating ESV trends and declining grassland and water service values. Ecosystem sensitivity to provisioning, regulation, and support services increased, signaling heightened vulnerability. Simulations revealed that natural development weakened ecological stability, while ecologically prioritized development enhanced forest and grassland values. The second-home scenario balanced ecological protection with human needs, improving overall ESV and promoting sustainability. These findings offer valuable insights for second-home planning and rural resource management strategies.

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乡村振兴：牟岛第二居所生态系统服务价值的时空演变与多情景预测

第二家园通过乡村旅游与文化的融合，对区域生态平衡和经济发展的影响越来越大。以湖北省牟道镇为研究对象，对2000 - 2020年土地利用变化进行了生态系统服务价值评估，并在多情景模拟的基础上进行了未来动态预测。结果表明：城市化导致建设用地扩张，森林略有增长，草地和水体减少，导致ESV趋势波动，草地和水体服务价值下降；生态系统对供应、监管和支持服务的敏感性增加，表明脆弱性加剧。模拟结果表明，自然发展削弱了生态稳定性，生态优先发展增强了森林和草地的价值。第二家园方案平衡了生态保护与人类需求，提高了整体ESV，促进了可持续性。这些发现为第二居所规划和农村资源管理策略提供了有价值的见解。

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来源期刊

Land Use Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

553

期刊介绍： Land Use Policy is an international and interdisciplinary journal concerned with the social, economic, political, legal, physical and planning aspects of urban and rural land use. Land Use Policy examines issues in geography, agriculture, forestry, irrigation, environmental conservation, housing, urban development and transport in both developed and developing countries through major refereed articles and shorter viewpoint pieces.