The 2021 Baby Boom in Iceland: Exploring the Role of a Parental Leave Reform and the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Abstract

In 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Total Fertility Rate in Iceland rose unexpectedly from 1.79 to 1.90. The increased number of births followed an important reform in the Icelandic paid parental leave scheme, which included an expansion of the leave from 10 to 12 months. Analysis of data from Statistics Iceland and focus group interviews with parents who had a child in 2021 were used to explore if and how the parental leave reform and the societal changes related to the pandemic-shaped parents' decision to have a child in 2021. As the rise in fertility was short-lived, the results indicate that the baby boom of 2021 can hardly be explained by the parental leave reform. Rather, at least for educated women, who already had children and were in a good financial state, it seems that the pandemic created a favourable atmosphere for having a child. Parents' narratives from the focus group interviews suggest that the pandemic might have been a good time to start or add to the family because of the increased time spent at home and the limited involvement in social activities outside the home.