European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie最新文献

This article presents an investigation into the gendered outcomes of inter-regional moves in six European countries, adopting a life-course perspective. Analyses are based on retrospective data from SHARELIFE for birth cohorts from the 1930s to 1960s in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Sweden. Linear probability panel models with fixed effects are used to examine the association between inter-regional migration and employment status over time, while assessing whether it differs by gender and family status. Results show that men experience improved employment probabilities following migration, regardless of their family status, and that these outcomes are consistent across countries. Moreover, the likelihood of employment for men continues to gradually increase several years after the move. In contrast, inter-regional mobility favours single women more than partnered women, especially mothers. Results, however, do not confirm a pattern of continued disadvantages, as mobility does not further reduce the employment prospects of mothers over time. The largest differences in the association between geographical mobility and employment between single women and mothers are observed in Mediterranean countries, while in more egalitarian countries like Sweden these differences are comparatively small.

Countries with low mortality show uneven success in improving longevity. Smoking-still a dominant health risk-is a major determinant of these divergent trajectories. Our study aims to determine: a) the continuing influence of smoking on national mortality trends, and b) the extent to which other factors are preventing countries from realizing their health potential. Using mortality data from 20 low-mortality countries (1950-2019), we quantify life expectancy and age-specific mortality differences as calendar years behind the current longevity frontier, defined as record smoking-eliminated life expectancy. We find that current life expectancy largely reflects smoking-eliminated records from two decades ago, with a notable gender paradox across most countries: men are moving closer to the optimal health benchmarks, while women are drifting further away, although men still bear a greater burden of past smoking. While longevity leaders differ from laggards mainly in mortality at advanced ages, laggards show also extensive developmental delays throughout most of the working ages and the second half of life. Our results highlight the diminishing effect of smoking and the role of additional adverse factors in delayed mortality improvement. However, the positive effects from smoking declines have not yet been fully realized, as evidenced by the still comparatively high reduction in development delays after eliminating smoking. Nevertheless, the realization of further health potential largely depends on countries' ability to manage health in old age, including the increasing burden of chronic disease.

Despite ongoing efforts to reduce health disparities, substantial mortality differences persist across and within European countries. Avoidable mortality, i.e. deaths preventable through timely medical care or effective public health measures, provides a useful framework for assessing these inequalities. While previous studies largely focus on national differences, this study examines spatial differences and trends in avoidable mortality at the district level. We analysed official cause-of-death statistics for 581 districts across 10 European countries from 2002 to 2019, using age-standardised death rates (SDR) as the primary outcome. Spatiotemporal clusters were identified using emerging hotspot analysis. Our results show that SDRs for avoidable mortality declined across most districts for both sexes, yet marked disparities persist between men and women and between amenable and preventable mortality. Districts in Central and Eastern Europe consistently exhibited higher SDRs than those in Western and Southern Europe, while Germany occupies an intermediate position with particularly high rates for amenable mortality. Spatiotemporal hotspot analysis confirmed these patterns and showed that persistent high-mortality (hotspots) and low-mortality (coldspots) clusters persist, reflecting both substantial within-country inequalities and cohesive cross-border mortality patterns. These findings suggest that national boundaries are not always the most meaningful lines for explaining health outcomes. Instead, local socioeconomic and structural determinants of health play a central role. Persistent hotspots highlight areas where targeted interventions are urgently needed, while coldspots may offer lessons for best practices. Addressing these inequalities requires targeted, place-based, and transnational strategies to effectively reduce health inequalities in Europe.

Considerable variation exists across societies in the prevalence of demographic trends associated with the second demographic transition (SDT). We propose that these persistent disparities are, in part, determined by long-standing cultural traits. Employing an epidemiological approach, we proxy the inherited component of five key values-gender egalitarianism, religiosity, institutional distrust, generalized trust, and family ties-from the descendants of immigrants in the United States, and link them to SDT outcomes across 23 countries. Our analysis investigates whether societies pre-exposed to these specific values through intergenerational transmission are more or less likely to exhibit SDT, operationalized here as the share of births outside marriage. Our findings reveal that several of these traits exert a notable influence when interacting with educational expansion. Gender egalitarianism, institutional distrust, and generalized trust exhibit positive associations with non-marital birth rates when coupled with increased education. Meaning that, with the broad educational expansion that has taken place across all Western countries after the IIWW, the SDT spreads much faster in societies where these three inherited values are deeply ingrained. Conversely, family ties demonstrate a negative association, while no strong evidence is found regarding the influence of religiosity. In conclusion, our study underscores the necessity of a nuanced cultural approach to the SDT framework, acknowledging the importance of local values alongside the global ideational shift.

An incomplete understanding of biases affecting the representativeness of genealogies has hindered their full exploitation. We report on a series of experiments on synthetic populations assessing how structural biases in ascendant genealogies affect the accuracy of demographic estimates. Using the SOCSIM microsimulation programme and Swedish fertility and mortality data (1751-2022), we analyse three biases: lineage survival, limited coverage of collateral kin, and selective omission. Comparing demographic measures from 'fully recorded' and 'bias-infused' synthetic populations, we find that across the period, including only direct ancestors can underestimate total fertility rate (TFR) ([Formula: see text]) and overestimate life expectancy at birth ([Formula: see text]) ([Formula: see text]), mainly due to missing infant, child, and some young adult deaths. Including direct ancestors' offspring shifts TFR to overestimation ([Formula: see text]) while improving mortality estimation across all ages, with [Formula: see text] overestimation reduced to [Formula: see text]. Our study shows that completeness of family trees is essential for obtaining accurate demographic estimates from genealogies.

We assess long-term labour mismatches in the European Union (EU27) by projecting the occupational distribution of workers and skill-specific labour demand up to 2060. Using a dynamic microsimulation approach (Link4Skills-Mic), we jointly model demographic, educational, and labour force dynamics at the individual level and combine country-specific projections of labour supply with projections of occupational demand. The analysis highlights growing imbalances: although the supply of highly educated workers continues to rise, shifts in demand are not evenly distributed across skill levels. Consequently, underutilization of high-skilled workers is projected to coexist with persistent vacancies in medium- and low-skilled occupations. Rather than indicating widespread labour shortages, these trends point to structural mismatches driven by the misalignment of worker qualifications, job characteristics, and hiring practices. To explore potential responses, we examine a series of policy scenarios such as expanded immigration, education reform, mid-career retraining, delayed retirement, and employer-led automation and upskilling. The findings show that, while certain policies can reduce specific mismatches, no single intervention closes all the gaps that emerge. Notably, automation reduces vacancies but increases underutilization, whereas human capital strategies shift mismatches across skill levels. These results suggest that addressing future labour mismatches will require coordinated, comprehensive and varied strategies that integrate demographic realities with evolving job demands in Europe's ageing and increasingly digitalized and knowledge-based economies.

Understanding the housing and residential mobility of migrant populations is crucial to facilitate their integration into host societies. Yet, little is known about their experiences across generations, origin groups, and country contexts. This study investigates residential mobility and housing changes among immigrants and their descendants in five European countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden) with different housing markets and migrant populations. Using longitudinal data from 2010 to 2019, we first compare the risk of a residential move across migrant generations, origins groups, and host countries. We then study the propensity to move to different housing tenure types (i.e., homeownership, private renting, and social renting). We find distinct patterns of residential moves among migrant generations and origin groups. First, immigrants' residential mobility levels vary across origin groups and country contexts. However, we generally find lower mobility for the second generation compared to the first in all groups. Second, in all countries, immigrants, especially from non-European countries, are less likely to move to homeownership and more likely to move to social or private renting than the native populations. Some of the differences decline across migrant generations, however, we still find lower levels of mobility to homeownership and a higher propensity of moving to social renting among some descendant groups. This study sheds light on persistent differences in residential mobility and housing patterns among immigrants and their descendants in Europe and contributes to a better understanding of the role of the country context in assimilation of housing behaviour and perpetuating housing inequalities.

The factors that shape fertility preferences-and their transition to reality-have been widely discussed. However, very few empirical studies have estimated the causal effect of sibship size on fertility preferences. Using the case of urban China, this study examines if growing up as an only child can lead to lower fertility ideals. Exploiting the introduction of the one-child policy in 1980 and using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, the study finds that, among individuals born right around 1980, the increased probability of being an only child significantly reduces the ideal number of children and the probability of desiring two or more children. The sibship size effect not only offers a plausible explanation for low fertility ideals in urban China but also attests to a key mechanism underlying the "Low-Fertility Trap" hypothesis.