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Flexible Working Arrangements and Fertility Intentions: A Survey Experiment in Singapore. 弹性工作安排与生育意愿:新加坡的一项调查实验。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09719-1
Senhu Wang, Hao Dong

This study examines how young, unmarried, working people's fertility intention is shaped by future scenarios where flexible working arrangements (FWAs) are the default. The unmarried population remains to be an under-studied part of the working population at reproductive ages, who nevertheless becomes increasingly significant for fertility research due to rising ages at marriage and the first birth. Despite significant public anticipation regarding the potential of FWAs to facilitate work-family balance and fertility, there is little research on the effects of FWAs on fertility intentions. We conduct a population-based vignette survey experiment to identify the causal effects of FWAs by randomly manipulating three scenarios of FWAs policy changes-reducing hours, increasing work-schedule flexibility, and increasing workplace flexibility-in Singapore, where both overwork norm and low fertility co-exist. All three types of FWAs improve fertility intentions. The effects are especially substantial for women, for which anticipated work-family conflict is an important mediator. Moreover, FWAs matter particularly to those in professional and managerial occupations. These findings call for policies facilitating a more family-friendly environment to tackle low fertility in the future of work.

本研究探讨了年轻、未婚、在职者的生育意愿如何受未来默认灵活工作安排(FWAs)情景的影响。未婚人口仍然是育龄工作人口中研究不足的一部分,但由于结婚年龄和首次生育年龄的提高,他们对生育率研究的重要性日益增加。尽管公众对家庭工作场所促进工作与家庭平衡和生育的潜力抱有很大期望,但有关家庭工作场所对生育意愿的影响的研究却很少。我们在新加坡进行了一项基于人口的小样本调查实验,通过随机操纵三种家庭福利津贴政策变化情景--减少工时、增加工作时间灵活性和增加工作场所灵活性--来确定家庭福利津贴的因果效应。所有三种类型的家庭工作津贴都能改善生育意愿。对女性的影响尤其显著,因为预期的工作与家庭冲突是一个重要的中介因素。此外,家庭WA 对那些从事专业和管理职业的人尤为重要。这些研究结果呼吁制定政策,营造更有利于家庭的环境,以解决未来工作中的低生育率问题。
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引用次数: 0
The Urban Bias in Latin American Avoidable Mortality. 拉丁美洲可避免死亡率的城市偏差。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09716-4
Jenny Garcia Arias

In 1977, Michael Lipton introduced the Urban Bias Thesis as a framework for understanding how most economic policy initiatives have contributed to the overdevelopment of urban areas and the underdevelopment of rural areas. In Latin America, there has historically been a positive correlation between urbanization and mortality decline, as the region's health transition generally began in the main cities and tended to proceed more rapidly in countries with higher levels of urbanization. This paper seeks evidence of a residual urban bias in the region's mortality patterns. Using a sample of Latin American countries over the 2000-2010 period, I analyse the disparities in mortality patterns and avoidable causes of death by looking closely at urban and rural areas using continuum categories. The results indicate that the urban advantage does persist and that rural-urban mortality differentials have consistently favoured the largest cities. The metropolitan advantage in mortality is an outcome of lower mortality in causes of death that are avoidable through primary interventions. Even in scenarios of high mortality at younger adult ages (15-44), the metropolitan advantage remains, due primarily to unsuccessful efforts to reduce mortality in populations aged 45 years and over outside the main and large cities.

1977 年,迈克尔-利普顿提出了 "城市偏见论",作为理解大多数经济政策措施如何导致城市地区过度发展和农村地区发展不足的框架。在拉丁美洲,城市化与死亡率下降之间历来存在正相关关系,因为该地区的健康转型通常始于主要城市,而且城市化水平较高的国家往往转型更快。本文试图寻找该地区死亡率模式中残余城市偏差的证据。通过对 2000-2010 年期间拉美国家的样本进行分析,我采用连续分类法仔细研究了城市和农村地区在死亡率模式和可避免死因方面的差异。结果表明,城市优势确实持续存在,城乡死亡率差异一直有利于最大的城市。大城市在死亡率方面的优势是可通过初级干预措施避免的死因死亡率较低的结果。即使在较年轻的成年人(15-44 岁)死亡率较高的情况下,大都市的优势依然存在,这主要是由于在大城市以外降低 45 岁及以上人口死亡率的努力没有取得成功。
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引用次数: 0
First Union Formation in Italy: The Role of Micro- and Macro-Level Economic Conditions. 意大利第一联盟的形成:微观和宏观经济条件的作用。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09712-8
Silvia Meggiolaro, Fausta Ongaro, Elena Pirani

In this paper, we use data from the 'Families and Social Subjects' survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in 2016 to study the impact of micro- and macro-level economic conditions on first co-residential union formation. We aim to determine if and to what extent the probability of forming the first union is explained by individual labour market positions (e.g. having non-standard employment or not having work), and additionally explore if adverse macroeconomic conditions also play a role. We differentiate by union type-marriage and cohabitation-known to be characterised by different levels of union commitment. We also address potential gender differences by conducting separate analyses on men and women. Our results suggest that while micro- and macro-level economic factors matter in the union formation process, their effect varies by gender and union type. Individual economic vulnerability has a greater impact on marriage than on cohabitation for both men and women. Instead, contextual economic uncertainty plays a relevant role, especially in the transition to cohabitation, regardless of gender, and, to a lesser extent, in the transition to marriage, but only for women.

在本文中,我们使用意大利国家统计局在 2016 年进行的 "家庭和社会主体 "调查数据,研究微观和宏观层面的经济条件对首次同居结合形成的影响。我们的目的是确定个人劳动力市场状况(如拥有非标准就业或没有工作)是否以及在多大程度上可以解释形成首次同居的概率,此外,我们还探讨了不利的宏观经济条件是否也发挥了作用。我们按婚姻和同居这两种结合类型进行区分,众所周知,这两种类型的结合承诺程度不同。我们还通过对男性和女性进行单独分析来解决潜在的性别差异问题。我们的研究结果表明,虽然微观和宏观层面的经济因素在结合过程中很重要,但其影响因性别和结合类型而异。对男性和女性而言,个人经济脆弱性对婚姻的影响大于对同居的影响。相反,背景经济的不确定性起到了相关作用,尤其是在向同居过渡的过程中,无论性别如何;在向婚姻过渡的过程中,不确定性的影响较小,但只对女性有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Residential Mobility in Childhood and Union Dissolution Later in Life. 童年时期的居住流动性与日后的婚姻解体。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09717-3
Alon Pertzikovitz, Sergi Vidal, Helga A G de Valk

The limited existing literature studying the effects of childhood residential mobility suggests that it influences a range of life outcomes, at least in young adulthood. Little is known about how the frequency of moving in childhood is related to later-life demographic behaviour in Europe. Drawing on residential and partnership histories from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this paper examines whether moving in childhood relates to union dissolution in adulthood. It empirically addresses two theoretical explanations underlying the potential association: First, according to the confounding hypothesis, effects of childhood residential mobility differ by family background and resources. Second, the family stress model suggests that the accumulated stress and conflicts associated with frequent residential mobility disrupt the family and child's social ties, resulting in worse relationship skills in later life (mediation hypothesis). Applying discrete-time event history analysis to individuals born between 1945 and 1965 in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland, we find a significant association between childhood moves (prior to age 17) and adult union dissolution. The effect's strength varies based on the number of childhood moves, demonstrating a clear gradient. Notably, adults with three or more childhood moves exhibit a 55% higher likelihood of union dissolution compared to non-movers. These associations persist even after accounting for childhood background factors, while family stress mediates the link partially. Our findings shed light on the role of spatial mobility in shaping demographic outcomes and underscore its potential contribution to the accumulation and reproduction of life disadvantages.

研究童年时期居住地流动性影响的现有文献有限,这些文献表明,童年时期居住地的流动性会影响一系列生活结果,至少在青年时期会如此。在欧洲,人们对童年时期的迁移频率与日后人口行为的关系知之甚少。本文利用欧洲健康、老龄和退休调查(SHARE)中的居住和伴侣关系史,研究了童年时期的搬家是否与成年后的婚姻解体有关。本文从经验角度探讨了潜在关联的两种理论解释:首先,根据混杂假说,童年时期居住地流动的影响因家庭背景和资源而异。其次,家庭压力模型表明,与频繁居住流动相关的累积压力和冲突会破坏家庭和孩子的社会关系,导致他们在以后的生活中关系技巧变差(中介假说)。通过对瑞典、丹麦和芬兰 1945 年至 1965 年间出生的个体进行离散时间事件历史分析,我们发现童年时期(17 岁以前)的迁移与成年后的婚姻解体之间存在显著关联。这种影响的强度因童年搬家次数而异,呈现出明显的梯度。值得注意的是,与未搬家者相比,童年搬家三次或三次以上的成年人解除婚姻关系的可能性要高出 55%。即使在考虑了童年背景因素后,这些关联依然存在,而家庭压力在一定程度上调解了这种关联。我们的研究结果揭示了空间流动性在形成人口结果方面的作用,并强调了空间流动性对生活劣势的积累和再生产的潜在贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Does Ethnicity Moderate the Union Dissolution Penalty for Women? A Register-based Analysis of Changes in Income Components. 种族是否会调节妇女解除婚约的惩罚?对收入构成变化的登记分析。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09714-6
Bram Hogendoorn, Matthijs Kalmijn

Union dissolution has severe consequences for women's economic well-being. Theoretical work links these consequences to ethnic inequality. Ethnic groups vary in terms of separation rates, female employment, repartnering trajectories, kin support, and reliance on welfare benefits. The current study examines whether ethnicity moderates the dissolution penalty. To do so, the authors draw on register data, covering women from five major ethnic groups in the Netherlands: Dutch, Antillean, Surinamese, Moroccan, and Turkish. The authors describe women's income trajectories from 1 year before to 5 years after union dissolution. Using decomposition techniques, changes in household income are decomposed into changes in six underlying income sources (i.e., earnings, benefits, alimony, partner income, and coresident family income). The results show that ethnicity moderates the dissolution penalty and, especially, the contribution of the various income sources when recovering from dissolution.

工会解体对妇女的经济福祉造成严重后果。理论研究将这些后果与种族不平等联系起来。种族群体在分居率、女性就业、再婚轨迹、亲属支持和对福利的依赖方面各不相同。本研究探讨了种族是否会调节解体惩罚。为此,作者利用了登记数据,涵盖了荷兰五个主要民族的妇女:她们分别来自荷兰、安的列斯、苏里南、摩洛哥和土耳其。作者描述了妇女从解除婚姻关系前 1 年到解除婚姻关系后 5 年的收入轨迹。利用分解技术,将家庭收入变化分解为六个基本收入来源(即收入、福利、赡养费、伴侣收入和共同居住家庭收入)的变化。结果表明,种族因素会调节解体惩罚,特别是在从解体中恢复时,各种收入来源的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty and Fertility in Ukraine on the Eve of Russia's Full-Scale Invasion: The Impact of Armed Conflict and Economic Crisis. 俄罗斯全面入侵前夕乌克兰的不确定性和生育率:武装冲突和经济危机的影响》。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09713-7
Brienna Perelli-Harris, Theodore Gerber, Yuliya Hilevych

While uncertainty has been a key explanation for very low fertility throughout Europe, few studies have analysed how macro-level uncertainty trickles down to shape how people think about having children. Most research focuses on economic uncertainty, not political or social uncertainty. We address these gaps with qualitative data from Ukraine, which has experienced extreme political uncertainty and, for the past decade, armed conflict. Ukraine also had exceptionally low fertility, with an estimated total fertility rate of 1.17 in 2021. In July 2021, we conducted 16 online focus groups on topics related to childbearing with informants living in urban and rural areas in Eastern Ukraine, including areas of Donetsk province that were outside Ukrainian government control. Half the groups consisted of persons displaced by the 2014 Donbas war. The discussions revealed distinct patterns whereby experiences of displacement, the simmering armed conflict, and economic problems combined to produce and intensify uncertainties that discouraged couples from having more than one child. Some blamed the government or delved into conspiracy theories. Armed conflict generates its own forms of uncertainty that interact with persistent economic challenges, dampening fertility.

虽然不确定性是整个欧洲生育率极低的一个重要原因,但很少有研究分析宏观层面的不确定性如何影响人们对生育子女的看法。大多数研究关注的是经济不确定性,而不是政治或社会不确定性。我们利用乌克兰的定性数据填补了这些空白,乌克兰经历了极端的政治不确定性,在过去十年中还经历了武装冲突。乌克兰的生育率也特别低,估计 2021 年的总和生育率为 1.17。2021 年 7 月,我们开展了 16 个在线焦点小组,与居住在乌克兰东部城市和农村地区(包括顿涅茨克州不受乌克兰政府控制的地区)的信息提供者讨论与生育相关的话题。其中一半小组成员是因 2014 年顿巴斯战争而流离失所的人。讨论揭示了一种独特的模式,即流离失所的经历、一触即发的武装冲突和经济问题结合在一起,产生并加剧了不确定性,阻碍了夫妇生育一个以上的孩子。一些人指责政府或陷入阴谋论。武装冲突产生了其自身形式的不确定性,这些不确定性与持续的经济挑战相互作用,抑制了生育率。
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引用次数: 0
Family Formation and Employment Changes Among Descendants of Immigrants in France: A Multiprocess Analysis. 法国移民后代的家庭组成和就业变化:多过程分析
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09709-3
Isaure Delaporte, Hill Kulu

This paper investigates the association between family formation and the labour market trajectories of immigrants' descendants over the life course. Using rich data from the Trajectories and Origins survey from France, we apply multilevel event history models to analyse the transitions in and out of employment for both men and women by parity. We account for unobserved co-determinants of childbearing and employment by applying a simultaneous-equations modelling. Our analysis shows that women's professional careers are negatively associated with childbirth. There are differences across descendant groups. The female descendants of Turkish immigrants are more likely to exit employment and less likely to re-enter employment following childbirth than women from other groups. The negative impact of childbearing on employment is slightly overestimated among women due to unobserved selection effects. Among men, the descendants of European immigrants are less likely to exit employment after having a child than other descendant groups. The study demonstrates the negative effect of childbearing on women's employment, which is pronounced for some minority groups suggesting the need for further policies to help women reconcile work with family life.

本文研究了家庭形成与移民后代在一生中的劳动力市场轨迹之间的关联。我们利用法国 "轨迹与起源 "调查中的丰富数据,运用多层次事件史模型,分析了男性和女性在平等条件下的就业和离职情况。我们采用同时方程模型,考虑了生育和就业的未观察到的共同决定因素。我们的分析表明,女性的职业生涯与生育呈负相关。不同后裔群体之间存在差异。与其他群体的妇女相比,土耳其移民的女性后裔在生育后更有可能离职,而重新就业的可能性则更小。由于未观察到的选择效应,生育对女性就业的负面影响被略微高估。在男性中,欧洲移民的后代比其他后代群体更不可能在生育后退出就业。研究表明,生育对妇女就业有负面影响,这在一些少数民族群体中尤为明显,这表明有必要进一步制定政策,帮助妇女兼顾工作与家庭生活。
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引用次数: 0
Correction: Cross-sectional Average Length of Life Entropy ( H CAL ) : International Comparisons and Decompositions. 更正:横截面平均寿命熵(H CAL):国际比较与分解。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09715-5
Wen Su, Vladimir Canudas-Romo
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引用次数: 0
Cross-sectional Average Length of Life Entropy ( H CAL ): International Comparisons and Decompositions. 横截面平均寿命熵(H CAL):国际比较与分解。
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09711-9
Wen Su, Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Keyfitz and Leser's life table entropy was proposed to serve as a relative inequality in mortality measure. Entropy considers the variation around the age at death relative to the length of lifespan in a population, allowing comparisons across time and populations. It is used widely in period and cohort applications. Here, we propose extending this measure and present an index that incorporates the history of survival of all cohorts present at a given time, namely the cross-sectional average length of life entropy, or CAL-entropy ( H CAL ). We decompose cross-population differences of CAL-entropy into the contribution of longevity and lifespan variation, and the change of those differences across time. Our illustrations show that populations are converging regarding lifespan inequality. Lifespan variation holds a noticeable share in the CAL-entropy gap among selected European populations. Longevity held once a pronounced share in CAL-entropy differences and their change, but its influence has receded over the years. The US demonstrates a unique trend where it performs worse across time compared to the selected European populations, and lifespan variation has played a major role in this process. This study signals the importance of lifespan variation in reducing inequality in mortality among developed and longevous populations.

Keyfitz 和 Leser 提出了生命表熵,作为衡量死亡率相对不平等的标准。熵考虑了人口死亡年龄相对于寿命长度的变化,可以进行跨时间和跨人口的比较。它在周期和队列应用中被广泛使用。在此,我们建议对这一指标进行扩展,提出一种包含特定时间内所有队列的生存历史的指数,即横截面平均寿命熵(或称 CAL-熵,H CAL)。我们将 CAL-熵的跨人群差异分解为长寿和寿命变化的贡献,以及这些差异在不同时期的变化。我们的研究结果表明,在寿命不平等方面,不同人群的情况正在趋同。在选定的欧洲人群中,寿命变异在CAL-熵差距中占有明显的份额。寿命曾经在 CAL-熵差异及其变化中占有明显的比重,但随着时间的推移,其影响已经减弱。美国呈现出一种独特的趋势,即与选定的欧洲人群相比,美国在不同时期的表现更差,而寿命变化在这一过程中发挥了重要作用。这项研究表明,寿命变异在减少发达国家和长寿国家人口死亡率不平等方面具有重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Migration, Partner Selection, and Fertility in Germany: How Many Children are Born in Mixed Unions? 德国的移民、伴侣选择和生育率:有多少孩子是在混合婚姻中出生的?
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09710-w
Annegret Gawron, Nadja Milewski

For the German context, we investigate whether the number of children ever born differs between mixed unions (exogamous unions between natives and migrants or migrant descendants) and endogamous unions (unions among co-ethnics). Our theoretical considerations are derived from assimilation theories, which view exogamous unions as indicators of assimilation processes, and the framework on migrant fertility. The migrant (or descendant) partner in an exogamous union may adapt to the majority group, both partners may adapt to each other, or both partners may constitute a selected group in their fertility preferences. However, due to the higher likelihood of conflicts within the partnership and of separation, exogamy may disrupt family formation processes and depress couples' fertility. Drawing on data from the GSOEP (1984-2020), we estimate generalized Poisson regressions. The results reveal that the number of children ever born is higher in exogamous unions than in endogamous native couples. This general pattern largely persists across migrant generations and regions of origin, but we identify gender differences. While fertility in exogamous unions of native women/migrant (descendant) men is not statistically different from fertility in native/native couples, unions of migrant (descendant) women/native men have more children, especially when controlling for socio-demographic confounders. Our results demonstrate that in the German context, exogamy does not lead to fertility disruptions, and is not straightforwardly associated with assimilation to the fertility of the majority group. Instead, differences in gendered partner choice patterns and life-course transitions may influence the number of children exogamous couples have.

在德国,我们研究了混合结合(本地人与移民或移民后裔之间的外婚结合)与内婚结合(共同民族之间的结合)之间的生育数量是否存在差异。我们的理论依据来自同化理论(该理论将外婚结合视为同化过程的指标)和移民生育率框架。异族通婚中的移民(或后裔)伴侣可能会适应多数群体,伴侣双方可能会相互适应,或者伴侣双方可能在生育偏好上构成一个被选择的群体。然而,由于伴侣关系中发生冲突和分离的可能性较高,一夫一妻制可能会扰乱家庭组建过程并降低夫妻的生育率。我们利用 GSOEP(1984-2020 年)的数据,对广义泊松回归进行了估计。结果显示,外婚夫妇的生育率高于内婚夫妇。这种一般模式在不同移民世代和原籍地区基本保持不变,但我们发现了性别差异。本地女性/移民(后裔)男性的非一夫一妻制结合的生育率与本地/本地夫妇的生育率在统计上没有差异,而移民(后裔)女性/本地男性的结合则生育更多子女,尤其是在控制了社会人口混杂因素后。我们的研究结果表明,在德国,外婚并不会导致生育中断,也不会直接与多数群体的生育同化相关联。相反,性别伴侣选择模式和生命历程过渡的差异可能会影响外婚夫妇的子女数量。
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引用次数: 0
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European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie
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