Prioritizing astronaut traverses on the Moon: A multi-criteria decision-making approach

Abstract

Properly designed astronaut traverses are decisive for the science return and safety of crewed lunar missions to the Moon. Their development and planning are challenged by numerous parameters involved and the difficulty of determining their relative importance. Investigating the potential of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) techniques for lunar exploration within the context of Artemis III, this paper demonstrates the effective application of the well-established Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). AHP is utilized to derive weights for evaluating criteria, informed by inputs from scientists and engineers, emphasizing the geological interest and temperature of Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSR), followed by the slope profile of the traverse, although weighting is conditioned by expert background. TOPSIS is then applied to objectively rank astronaut traverses to PSRs at sites 001 and 004, situated on the ‘Connecting Ridge’ region. This analysis not only identifies a particular traverse from site 001 that is significantly superior to others but also conducts a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of challenging-to-quantify criteria such as geological interest. These findings underscore the considerable potential of MCDM techniques to enhance decision-making in lunar missions, thereby promising to improve the efficacy, science return, and safety of future Artemis missions through a systematic approach to complex trade-off decision landscapes.