Comprehensive tsunami hazard assessment for Wudam As-Sahil, Northern Oman: Integrating deterministic and probabilistic approaches

Abstract

Tsunamis pose serious threats to coastal regions, particularly regions with critical infrastructure. Recent events in the Indian Ocean and Japan have demonstrated the necessity of conducting comprehensive tsunami hazard analyses across regions including Oman which has experienced historical tsunamis generated from Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). This study seeks to assess the tsunami hazard for Wudam As-Sahil coast in northern Oman using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, focusing on earthquake-generated tsunamis from the MSZ. The research employs Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (DTHA) to model worst-case tsunami scenarios and Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) to estimate wave height probabilities over various exposure times. Numerical models simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation based on historical and hypothetical earthquake events. The DTHA results indicate that maximum tsunami wave heights could reach 3 m. In contrast, PTHA findings suggest a low probability of waves exceeding 1 m. Furthermore, this study identified Mw 7.2 western MSZ scenario as the most hazardous scenario for Wudam As-Sahil coast with potential run-up heights reaching up to 2.7 m. The findings underscore the moderate tsunami risk facing the Wudam As-Sahil coast. The hazard assessments provide valuable insights for disaster preparedness, indicating areas in need of mitigation measures and emergency planning efforts.