Assessing the ecological and economic transformation pathways of plastic production system

Abstract

Plastic's incredible versatility drives its continuous production growth, contributing to 4.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With an unsustainable 4% annual production growth rate, plastics' environmental impact is significant. Our study, using climate and economic models, assesses the effects of a voluntary plastic levy imposed on the top 100 resin producers. The results suggest a potential 70% reduction in global plastic production emissions by 2050, lowering emissions from business–as–usual levels to 1.62 Gt CO₂e. The proposed USD 82.5 billion levy over 25 years could fund recycling initiatives, increasing recycling rates by 73%. To align with the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C, plastic production growth would need to drop to approximately 2.9%–3.1% annually, achieving a 25% decrease by 2050. Implementing this levy could significantly enhance recycling and reduce emissions, mitigating climate change.