Evaluation of shield-tunnel segment assembly quality using a copula model and numerical simulation

IF 9.6 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Automation in Construction Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI:10.1016/j.autcon.2025.105976

Xiaohua Bao, Junhong Li, Jun Shen, Xiangsheng Chen, Zefan Huang, Hongzhi Cui

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Abstract

The quality of shield-tunnel segment assembly is uncertain and quantifying the probabilistic coupling effects of these factors is challenging. This paper presents a method for assessing shield-tunnel segment quality using a copula model with numerical simulation. A two-dimensional joint probability-distribution model is developed to model influencing factors, establishing a reliability-based evaluation system for segment assembly quality. Key steps include tunnel section division, marginal and copula function selection, and reliability assessment, focusing on a large submarine-shield tunnel. A Monte Carlo simulation examines the impact of various copula models on reliability estimates, validating the proposed method. Key findings show that (1) the selection of marginal and copula functions significantly affects segment assembly quality and reliability, with the commonly used Gaussian copula not always being optimal, and (2) failure probabilities can vary by up to 84 times due to differing construction conditions and geological factors across tunnel sections.

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盾构隧道管片装配质量的耦合模型与数值模拟评价

盾构隧道管片装配的质量具有不确定性，量化这些因素的概率耦合效应具有挑战性。本文提出了一种结合数值模拟的耦合模型评价盾构隧道管片质量的方法。建立了影响因素的二维联合概率分布模型，建立了基于可靠性的分段装配质量评价体系。以某大型海底盾构隧道为例，关键步骤包括隧道断面划分、边际和联结函数选择以及可靠性评估。蒙特卡罗模拟检验了各种联结模型对可靠性估计的影响，验证了所提出的方法。主要研究结果表明：(1)边际函数和联结函数的选择显著影响管片装配质量和可靠性，常用的高斯联结函数并不总是最优的；(2)由于施工条件和地质因素的不同，隧道断面的失效概率可达84倍。

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来源期刊

Automation in Construction 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

19.20

自引率

16.50%

发文量

563

审稿时长

8.5 months

期刊介绍： Automation in Construction is an international journal that focuses on publishing original research papers related to the use of Information Technologies in various aspects of the construction industry. The journal covers topics such as design, engineering, construction technologies, and the maintenance and management of constructed facilities. The scope of Automation in Construction is extensive and covers all stages of the construction life cycle. This includes initial planning and design, construction of the facility, operation and maintenance, as well as the eventual dismantling and recycling of buildings and engineering structures.