Assessing the structural resilience of the global crude oil maritime transportation network: A motif-based approach from network to ports

Abstract

The local structure has a decisive impact on the structural resilience of the Global Crude Oil Maritime Transportation Network (GCOMTN). However, existing studies ignore the significant local characteristics of ports that arise from the unique transport patterns of crude oil tankers. In this study, we construct the GCOMTN using AIS data of crude oil tankers from 2020 and develop a framework for assessing structural resilience at a finer granularity. Specifically, we introduced motif structures to characterize local structural features and proposed a sub-network perspective to evaluate the structural resilience of ports. We then explore the structural resilience of both network-wide and port-level under three intentional attack scenarios. The results indicate that closed motifs are the most vulnerable, disappearing rapidly under intentional attacks. The GCOMTN structure is particularly sensitive to failures at strategically located ports. Conversely, individual ports demonstrate greater resilience in such scenario, even though their local structures tend to be inherently unstable. This study offers valuable insights for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to collaborate effectively with port authorities, ensuring alignment in the goal of maintaining stable crude oil transportation.