[A prediction study of the risk of new 9-valent vaccine type human papillomavirus infections in men who have sex with men].

Abstract

Objective: To understand the factors influencing new infections of 9-valent vaccine-type human papillomavirus (9-valent type HPV) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Urumqi City and to construct a prediction model of individual dynamics of new infections of 9-valent type HPV among MSM. Methods: In this study, a snowball method was adopted to recruit MSM in Urumqi City to establish a dynamic cohort, and participants were followed up every 6 months from 2016 to 2023, and perianal exfoliated cells were collected for HPV genotyping; joint models were established using the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months and the number of anal intercourse in the last one week as longitudinal variables, respectively, and joint models were utilized to analyze the influence factors of 9-valent HPV new infections in MSM individuals were analyzed by the joint model; the predictive efficacy of the model in the follow-up period was evaluated by using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) values. Based on the prediction model, two study participants were randomly selected for individual dynamic prediction of new-onset HPV infections of 9-valent type types. Results: MSM with at least two follow-up visits 579 individuals were included in the analysis. The results of the two joint models showed that being divorced/widowed [hazard ratio (HR)=1.544, 95%CI: 1.033-2.233], having a sexual behavior style of being the inserted party (HR=1.366, 95%CI: 1.053-1.764), and having a history of STDs (HR=1.659, 95%CI: 1.057-2.558) increased the 9-valent types of new HPV infections risk. The results of the shared parameter of the joint model of the number of same-sex partners in the last six months showed that each 2.72 increase in the number of same-sex partners in the last six months was associated with a 28.2% increase in the risk of new 9-valent HPV infections in MSM individuals (HR=1.282, 95%CI: 1.065-1.540). The time-dependent AUC results showed that the joint model for the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months (0.808 0) predicted better performance than the joint model for the number of anal intercourse in the last one week (0.750 0). The joint model based on the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months for the prediction of MSM individual dynamics was consistent with the real situation. Conclusion: The joint model based on the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months, sexual behavior, history of STDs, and other risk factors has high accuracy in predicting the risk of new MSM 9-valent HPV infections in Urumqi City, which can provide a scientific basis for the prediction of individual dynamics of new MSM 9-valent HPV infections.