Local Climate Might Amplify Economic and Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicles in China

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are crucial for addressing the intertwined challenges of climate change and air pollution. The multiaspect benefits of EVs are highly dependent on local climate conditions, yet the impacts of regional heterogeneity in the context of future climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a systemic modeling framework integrating fleet modeling, emission projection, index decomposition analysis, and detailed cost assessment to identify local drivers and potential trade-offs behind electrification. Our findings reveal substantial regional variations in EV charging costs, ranging from 2.6 to 3.6 USD/100km. By 2030, EVs could constitute 54 to 96% of regional vehicle sales, reducing China’s CO₂ emissions by 40.3 Tg and NOx emissions by 20.8 Gg compared to 2020 levels. Climate change might amplify the impacts of EVs, potentially reducing national energy consumption by 1–2% toward 2060, particularly by alleviating winter-related battery performance degradation. Our results highlight tailoring strategies to subregional conditions and recommend accelerating electrification to maximize environmental and economic cobenefits under global warming.