Predicting postoperative adhesive small bowel obstruction in infants under 3 months with intestinal malrotation: a random forest approach

Abstract

Objective

This study aimed to develop a predictive model using a random forest algorithm to determine the likelihood of postoperative adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) in infants under 3 months with intestinal malrotation.

Methods

A machine learning model was used to predict postoperative adhesive small bowel obstruction using comprehensive clinical data extracted from 107 patients with a follow-up of at least 24 months. The Boruta algorithm was used for selecting clinical features, and nested cross-validation tuned and selected hyper-parameters for the random forest model. The model's performance was validated with 1000 bootstrap samples and assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1 score.

Results

The random forest model demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy with an AUC of 0.960. Significant predictors of ASBO included pre-operative white blood cell count (pre-WBC), mechanical ventilation (MV) duration, surgery duration, and post-operative albumin levels (post-ALB). Partial dependence plots showed non-linear relationships and threshold effects for these variables. The model achieved high sensitivity (0.805) and specificity (0.952), along with excellent precision (0.809) and a robust F1 score (0.799), indicating balanced recall and precision performance.

Conclusion

This study presents a machine learning model to accurately predict postoperative ASBO in infants with intestinal malrotation. Demonstrating high accuracy and robustness, this model shows great promise for enhancing clinical decision-making and patient outcomes in pediatric surgery.