Relative Impact of Underreporting and Desistance on the Dark Figure of Sexual Recidivism.

IF 1 3区 社会学 Q2 LAW Behavioral Sciences & the Law Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI:10.1002/bsl.2715
Nicholas Scurich, Richard S John
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Abstract

Sexual recidivism rates based on arrests or convictions underestimate actual reoffending due to underreporting. A previous Monte Carlo simulation estimated actual recidivism rates under various reporting and conviction assumptions but did not account for desistance-the decreasing likelihood of reoffending over time. This study addresses that gap by incorporating a 12.3% annual desistance rate (from a well-known empirical study) and exploring its impact alongside varying charge rates (100%-5%). The results showed that reductions in charge rates lead to disproportionately large increases in recidivism. For instance, lowering the charge rate from 50% to 25% results in a much larger increase in actual recidivism than reducing it from 100% to 75%, despite both being 25% reductions. This indicates that as charge rates decrease, actual recidivism grows more sharply. A sensitivity analysis also examined desistance rates of 0%, 5%, 12.3%, and 20%. Higher desistance rates cause reoffending to occur earlier but have little impact on long-term totals. Over 25 years, reoffending rates remain similar across desistance rates, suggesting desistance affects the timing, but not the overall amount of reoffending.

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CiteScore
2.50
自引率
7.10%
发文量
50
期刊最新文献
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