Integrating machine learning models for optimizing ecosystem health assessments through prediction of nitrate–N concentrations in the lower stretch of Ganga River, India

Abstract

Nitrate, a highly reactive form of inorganic nitrogen, is commonly found in aquatic environments. Understanding the dynamics of nitrate–N concentration in rivers and its interactions with other water-quality parameters is crucial for effective freshwater ecosystem management. This study uses advanced machine learning models to analyse water quality parameters and predict nitrate–N concentrations in the lower stretch of the Ganga River from the observations of six annual periods (2017 to 2022). The parameters include water temperature, pH, specific conductivity (Sp_Con), dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrate–N, total phosphate (TP), turbidity, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), silicate, total dissolved solids (TDS), and rainfall. The present study evaluated the predictive performance of five models—Multiple Polynomial Regression (MPR), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Decision Tree Regression, Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting)—using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, NSE and R² metrics. XGBoost emerged as the top performer, with an RMSE of 0.024, MAE of 0.018, MAPE of 51.805, NSE of 0.855 and R² of 0.85, explaining 85% of the variance in nitrate–N concentrations. Random Forest also demonstrated strong predictive capability, with an RMSE of 0.028, MAE of 0.021, MAPE of 57.272, NSE of 0.804 and R² of 0.80. MPR effectively modelled non-linear relationships, explaining 75% of the variance, while Decision Tree Regression and GAMs were less effective, with R² values of 0.60 and 0.48, respectively. Variables (BOD, pH, Rainfall, water temperature, and total phosphate) were the best predictors of nitrate–N dynamics. Comparative analysis with previous studies confirmed the robustness of XGBoost and Random Forest in environmental data modelling. The findings highlight the importance of advanced machine learning models in accurately predicting water quality parameters and facilitating proactive management strategies.