Re-emergence of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) in Egypt: Predicting distribution shifts under climate changes.

Abstract

Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of several medically significant arboviruses-including dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-was successfully eradicated from Egypt in 1963. However, since 2011, there have been increasing reports of its re-emergence, alongside dengue outbreaks in southern Egyptian governorates, raising significant public health concerns. This study aimed to model the current and future distribution of Ae. aegypti in Egypt. Local occurrence data were integrated with bioclimatic, anthropogenic and biological environmental variables to identify key factors influencing the distribution of Ae. aegypti. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling demonstrated strong predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] mean = 0.975; true skill statistic [TSS] mean = 0.789). The key determinants of habitat suitability were identified as human population density, annual precipitation and the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). Current predictions indicate that suitable habitats for Ae. aegypti are concentrated in the Nile Valley, Nile Delta, Fayoum Basin, Red Sea coast and South Sinai. Projections under future climate change scenarios suggest an expansion of suitable habitats, particularly in the Nile Delta region. By 2050, the model predicts a 61%-68% increase in suitable habitat area, with a further 64%-69% increase by 2070, depending on the future climate scenarios. These findings are crucial for informing vector control and disease prevention strategies, particularly considering Egypt's status as one of the world's leading tourist destinations.