Challenging Popular Narratives: The Course of Power Transition and Sino–US Relations

Abstract

Despite intensive scholarly interest in power transition theory (PTT) and its relevance to contemporary Sino–US relations, this article addresses three aspects central to policy discussions that have been largely neglected or taken for granted in the existing scholarly works on PTT. This article first establishes an analytical framework to analyse the course of power transition, enabling an in-depth analysis of the strategic interactions between the rising power and the dominant power throughout this process. It then critically reviews the historical, theoretical, and empirical studies focusing on three key aspects: (1) the timing and regularity of most war-prone moments in the course of power transition; (2) the role of the established power in the rise of its challenger; and (3) the rising power and established power’s incentives for strategic conflict avoidance. It challenges the prevailing narratives that depict a gradual trajectory toward conflict and confrontation as relative power dynamics shift, highlighting the complexity of strategic interactions between the two powers.