An Eco‐Social Policy Mix for 1.5°C Lifestyles: A Multi‐Country Policy Delphi Analysis

Abstract

Bridging the gap between welfare and climate policies is essential for simultaneously pursuing increased well‐being and reduced carbon emissions. This study uses a policy Delphi approach, involving experts and stakeholders from five European countries: Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Spain, and Sweden, to assess the perceived desirability and feasibility of six eco‐social policies for enabling 1.5°C lifestyles. The results show that eco‐social policies are challenged by current growth and work paradigms, which transcend welfare‐regime‐related, ideological, social, and institutional rationales. Of the selected policies, stakeholders found low‐efficiency housing retrofits the most desirable, but income caps the least desirable. Worktime reduction, job guarantees, and income ceilings raise deep concerns over work, motivation, and consumption. However, universal basic services, free public transport, and public renovation raise concerns about service efficiency, innovation incentives, and welfare entitlement. Stakeholders agreed that eco‐social policies are desirable and feasible, but only when combined in a way that balances social and environmental impacts. They believe it might be easier to address challenges in understanding and implementing these policies if they were part of a broader, coordinated approach at a supranational level, rather than isolated, single‐issue policies targeting specific sectors.