Is the static-99R valid for all men with ‘identifiable’ victims? Examining cases of online sexual solicitation of children

Abstract

This study assessed the predictive validity of the Static-99R among 172 men convicted of online sexual solicitation of minors in Canada – 93 from clinical settings and 79 from police investigations. It examined recidivism rates for sexual (any, contact, and child luring) and nonsexual violent offenses, comparing men with and without intent to engage in contact sexual offenses. Results showed the Static-99R effectively predicted recidivism, with modest to strong accuracy for contact sexual recidivism (Harrell's Cs = 0.78–0.94), any sexual recidivism (Harrell's Cs = 0.66–0.80), and child luring-specific recidivism (Harrell's Cs = 0.61–0.71). Predictive validity was consistent regardless of offenders' intent to engage in contact sexual offenses. Calibration analyses indicated the Static-99R underestimated the number of sexual recidivists in our sample. The study also highlighted differences between online and offline offenders, noting that online offenders often had numerous victims, which could complicate risk assessments. Discussion includes the relevance of Static-99R items related to victim characteristics and the need to refine tools for online offenders. Incorporating unique factors of online offenses may enhance the tool's predictive validity and practical application. Future research should address these dynamics to improve risk assessment for online sexual offenders.