Journal of Criminal Justice最新文献

A new college campus and crime: Focusing on crime opportunity and gentrification in downtown Orlando, Florida 新大学校园与犯罪：聚焦佛罗里达州奥兰多市中心的犯罪机会与城市化

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102302

Purpose

The current study assesses the potential crime-related impact of the University of Central Florida building a new college campus (UCF-Downtown) as part of a larger plan to revitalize the traditionally disadvantaged downtown Orlando, FL area.

Methods

Orlando Police Department crime incident data were used to track homicide, robbery, assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, larceny, and drug crime, and information about census block group gentrification related conditions were sourced from the American Community Survey. Weekly time-series analyses using data from January 2010 through December 2020 were conducted, and a spatial panel regression model using yearly data (2013–2019) included a gentrification measure to predict crime outcomes.

Results

Models detected a slight, and temporary, upward trend in assault and drug crime in the area within a 1-mile radius of UCF-Downtown during its construction. There was also some evidence of an increase in burglaries in the UCF-Downtown campus area during the construction period, with all other analyses indicating there was no change in crime related to the new campus or gentrification.

Conclusions

There was no widespread association between improvements made in downtown Orlando and crime, which suggests building the new campus was limited to temporary increases in assault, drug violations, and burglary during construction. Findings provide little support for the ability of a community reinvestment initiative in the form of a new college campus to reduce crime in the short term, and there may be temporary increases in crime opportunities during the construction of a new campus.

目的本研究评估了中佛罗里达大学新建大学校园（UCF-Downtown）对犯罪的潜在影响，该校园是振兴佛罗里达州奥兰多市中心传统弱势地区的更大计划的一部分。方法使用奥兰多警察局的犯罪事件数据来追踪凶杀、抢劫、袭击、入室盗窃、机动车盗窃、盗窃和毒品犯罪，并从美国社区调查中获取人口普查区块组绅化相关条件的信息。我们使用 2010 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月的数据进行了每周时间序列分析，并使用年度数据（2013-2019 年）建立了空间面板回归模型，其中包含了预测犯罪结果的绅士化措施。结论奥兰多市中心的改善与犯罪之间没有广泛的联系，这表明新校区的建设仅限于施工期间袭击、毒品犯罪和入室盗窃的暂时增加。研究结果几乎没有支持以新大学校园为形式的社区再投资计划在短期内减少犯罪的能力，在新校园建设期间，犯罪机会可能会暂时增加。

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引用次数: 0

To tent and protect: Homeless encampments as “protective facilities” 搭建帐篷，提供保护：作为 "保护设施 "的无家可归者营地

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102299

Post COVID-19, visible homelessness in the form of encampments has grown in cities across North America. Often these encampments are stereotyped as posing health and safety risks. In response to public outcry, many of these encampments have been forcefully removed by city employees and police. However, it is unclear if encampments are criminogenic or simply create that perception. In this study, we use encampment data collected by the City of Brantford (2023) and calls for service and incident data from the Brantford Police Service (2015–2022) to determine if the emergence of encampments results in an increase in crime and disorder in the surrounding areas. We use Thiessen Polygons to approximate encampment area influence. We then analyze changes in crime patterns over time in these areas using a structural break test, from the point of encampment emergence, to determine if encampments significantly increase the likelihood of crime and disorder as compared to previous years in the same areas. Findings suggest that encampments follow the same criminogenic place patterns of other types of facilities. Implications for policy are discussed.

在 COVID-19 之后，以露营形式出现的无家可归现象在北美各大城市不断增加。这些露营地往往被定型为构成健康和安全风险。在公众的强烈抗议下，许多露营地被城市雇员和警察强行拆除。然而，目前还不清楚这些营地是导致犯罪的原因，还是仅仅造成了这种印象。在本研究中，我们使用布兰特福德市收集的露营地数据（2023 年）以及布兰特福德市警察局的服务呼叫和事件数据（2015-2022 年）来确定露营地的出现是否会导致周边地区的犯罪和混乱增加。我们使用 Thiessen 多边形来估算露营区的影响范围。然后，我们使用结构断裂检验分析这些地区随着时间推移犯罪模式的变化，从露营地出现的时间点出发，确定与往年相比，露营地是否显著增加了同一地区发生犯罪和混乱的可能性。研究结果表明，露营地与其他类型的设施具有相同的致罪场所模式。本文讨论了对政策的影响。

引用次数: 0

1200 paths and counting: A script analysis of firearms trafficking in the Province of Quebec, Canada 1200 条路径和计数：加拿大魁北克省枪支贩运脚本分析

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102301

Purpose

Based on the crime script approach, the main objective of this study was to identify steps involved in firearms trafficking in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Our analysis focused on actions performed by actors, facilitating conditions, obstacles and errors for each step of the firearms trafficking process.

Method

A deductive thematic analysis was conducted to build the firearms trafficking script with 76 investigation files, conducted between 1996 and 2020, that were provided by the Quebec State Police.

Results

Firearms trafficking included six steps: (1) preparation; (2) acquisition of firearms; (3) storage of firearms; (4) search for customers; (5) transaction; and (6) exit. Since each step can be completed with different actions, a total 1200 combinations of actions could be used to traffic firearms. Results also indicated that several actors were involved at different steps of the script such as suppliers, middlemen, and vendors. Unregulated tools (e.g., hydraulic press, mold), materials and components (e.g., steel sheets, barrels) facilitated the fabrication of private firearms, while advertising firearms on social media was an error made by some suspects.

Conclusion

The dynamic and sequential nature of firearms trafficking was highlighted by our script analysis. Crime script analysis also proved to be a useful approach to predict potential crime displacement, plan program evaluation and implementation, and prioritize prevention measures involving multiple agencies.

目的基于犯罪脚本方法，本研究的主要目的是确定加拿大魁北克省枪支贩运的步骤。我们的分析重点是枪支贩运过程中每个步骤的参与者所采取的行动、有利条件、障碍和错误。方法利用魁北克省警察局提供的 1996 年至 2020 年期间进行的 76 份调查档案进行了演绎式主题分析，以建立枪支贩运脚本。结果枪支贩运包括六个步骤：(1) 准备；(2) 获取枪支；(3) 储存枪支；(4) 寻找客户；(5) 交易；(6) 退出。由于每个步骤都可以通过不同的行动来完成，因此共有 1200 种行动组合可用于贩运枪支。结果还表明，在脚本的不同步骤中涉及多个参与者，如供应商、中间商和销售商。不受管制的工具（如液压机、模具）、材料和部件（如钢板、枪管）为私人枪支的制造提供了便利，而在社交媒体上发布枪支广告则是一些嫌疑人犯下的错误。犯罪脚本分析也被证明是一种有用的方法，可用于预测潜在的犯罪转移、规划计划评估和实施，以及确定涉及多个机构的预防措施的优先次序。

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引用次数: 0

Classifying perpetrators of stalking-related behavior with latent class analysis 利用潜类分析对跟踪相关行为的实施者进行分类

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102298

Background

Stalking often escalates from mild behaviors, such as surveillance, to severe forms involving violence, posing serious risks to victims. While identifying high-risk perpetrator classes is crucial for preventing victimization, research on perpetrator classification based on stalking behavior remains limited.

Purpose

This study used latent class analysis (LCA) to classify perpetrators by gender based on their stalking-related behavior (SRB) patterns from a Japanese population survey, and examined the risk levels and characteristics of each class.

Methods

Participants included 530 Japanese individuals (240 men and 290 women) aged 20–49 years whose non-marital romantic partner had expressed a desire for separation and no contact.

Results

LCA revealed four-class models for both men and women. For men, the classes identified were indirect seeker (71.9 %), direct pursuit (21.3 %), serious perpetrator (3.8 %), and mild perpetrator (3.0 %). For women, the classes were indirect seeker (68.2 %), direct pursuit (19.2 %), malicious defamation (10.5 %), and serious perpetrator (2.2 %). In both genders, serious perpetrators exhibited a higher likelihood of violence and suicide attempts, emphasizing the need for mental health assessments and appropriate care alongside violence prevention.

Conclusions

Future research should focus on exploring the diversity of high-risk perpetrators.

背景跟踪行为往往会从监视等轻微行为升级到涉及暴力的严重形式，从而给受害者带来严重风险。本研究根据日本人口调查中与跟踪相关的行为（SRB）模式，采用潜类分析法（LCA）对施暴者进行性别分类，并研究了每类施暴者的风险水平和特征。方法参与者包括 530 名日本人（240 名男性和 290 名女性），他们的年龄在 20-49 岁之间，其非婚恋伴侣曾表示希望分居且不再联系。对男性而言，确定的等级是间接寻求者（71.9%）、直接追求者（21.3%）、严重施害者（3.8%）和轻度施害者（3.0%）。就女性而言，则分为间接寻求者（68.2%）、直接追求者（19.2%）、恶意诽谤者（10.5%）和严重肇事者（2.2%）。在这两种性别中，严重施暴者都表现出更高的暴力和自杀企图的可能性，这强调了在预防暴力的同时进行心理健康评估和适当护理的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

When failure is the option: Unravelling sexual assault outcomes 当失败成为一种选择时揭示性侵犯的结果

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102297

We investigate the concept of “criminal failure” in sexual crimes and the relevance of various theoretical frameworks for its understanding: individual offender's rational choice, environmental influences and routine activities, victimological characteristics from lifestyle theory, and crime interaction factors. We examined a sample of 1121 “failed” cases (i.e., attempted but not completed) and 1500 “successful” cases (i.e., completed) of sexual assault that occurred in France between 1990 and 2018. We used 32 predictors that mapped on the four theoretical frameworks and conducted bivariate followed by multivariate analyses. Multiple theoretical frameworks are relevant to understand criminal failure, which is a product of perpetrator, environmental, victimological, and interactional factors. Two distinct patterns are specifically associated with failure: lack of preparation and lack of social skills. In addition, failure was best understood not as a unitary concept, but as multifactorial by distinguishing between different types of failure, specifically: offender intentionally released the victim before completion, victim escaped or third party rescue. Finally, patterns of failure were different in sexual crimes against children compared to those against adults. Criminology should pay closer attention to failure in crime. This understudied area can yield important theoretical knowledge and practical implications regarding the prevention of sexual crimes.

我们研究了性犯罪中 "犯罪失败 "的概念以及各种理论框架对其理解的相关性：罪犯个人的理性选择、环境影响和常规活动、生活方式理论中的受害者特征以及犯罪互动因素。我们对 1990 年至 2018 年间发生在法国的 1121 起 "失败"（即未遂但未完成）和 1500 起 "成功"（即已完成）的性侵犯案件进行了抽样调查。我们使用了与四个理论框架相对应的 32 个预测因子，并进行了双变量和多变量分析。犯罪失败是犯罪者、环境、受害者和互动因素的产物，多种理论框架与理解犯罪失败相关。有两种不同的模式与失败特别相关：缺乏准备和缺乏社交技能。此外，最好不要将失败理解为一个单一的概念，而应区分不同类型的失败，将其理解为多因素的失败，具体包括：犯罪者故意在完成前释放受害者、受害者逃跑或第三方救援。最后，与针对成年人的性犯罪相比，针对儿童的性犯罪的失败模式有所不同。犯罪学应该更加关注犯罪中的失败。这个未被充分研究的领域可以为预防性犯罪提供重要的理论知识和实践意义。

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引用次数: 0

Veto players and gun violence in drug markets: Analysis based on field observations of eighty drug-selling spots on the Westside of Chicago 毒品市场中的 "否决者 "和枪支暴力：根据对芝加哥西区八十个毒品销售点的实地观察进行的分析

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102295

Purpose

The study analyzed whether the number of drug-selling spots has an impact on shooting incidents in drug markets on the Westside of Chicago.

Methods

A theory of gun violence in drug markets was developed by building on veto players theory, and tested using a series of two-way fixed-effects Poisson regressions. The main variable of interest—drug-selling spots—comes from an original dataset comprised of eighty drug-selling spots identified through covert field observations. Controls included: the average age and average number of drug spot workers at the drug-selling spots, concentrated disadvantage, population, police anti-drug operations, and drug demand.

Findings

In support of the theory, the main statistical models and robustness tests consistently found that the larger the number of drug-selling spots in a given drug market, the higher the number of shooting incidents over time. Only the control for population remained consistently statistically significant across model specifications.

Conclusion

The study contributes to the drug market literature by offering a novel theory of drug market violence, as well as a replicable way for researchers to observe drug market activity without disturbing the natural behaviors of market participants. The operationalization of drug-selling spots as sub-factions of organized criminal groups also provides a novel approach to the study of drug market violence.

研究目的：本研究分析了毒品销售点的数量是否会对芝加哥西区毒品市场的枪击事件产生影响。研究方法：在否决者理论的基础上建立了毒品市场枪支暴力理论，并使用一系列双向固定效应泊松回归进行了检验。主要变量--毒品销售点--来自一个原始数据集，该数据集由通过秘密实地观察确定的 80 个毒品销售点组成。控制因素包括：毒品销售点工作人员的平均年龄和平均人数、集中的不利条件、人口、警方的缉毒行动以及毒品需求。该研究为毒品市场文献做出了贡献，提供了一种新颖的毒品市场暴力理论，并为研究人员提供了一种在不干扰市场参与者自然行为的情况下观察毒品市场活动的可复制方法。将毒品销售点作为有组织犯罪集团的子派别进行操作，也为毒品市场暴力研究提供了一种新方法。

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引用次数: 0

Business disruptions due to social vulnerability and criminal activities in urban areas 城市地区的社会脆弱性和犯罪活动导致业务中断

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102293

This study investigates the relationship between social vulnerability, illegal activities, and location-based business disruptions in Athens, the capital of Greece. The research utilises repeated cross-sectional data from 2008, 2014, and 2023, gathered from areas with high levels of criminal activity, reflecting the experiences of business owners and managers in these locations. The findings reveal that heightened levels of social vulnerability—including the presence of illicit drug users and homeless individuals—alongside illegal activities such as gang-related protection rackets and black-market operations, are associated with increased location-based business disruptions. These disruptions manifest in assaults on employees and customers, business burglaries, reputational damage, supply chain problems, and decreased turnover. The study also examines the impact of economic conditions in 2014 and 2023, when Greece's Gross Domestic Product was lower than in 2008, indicating an economic recession. The findings suggest that the economic downturn during these years further exacerbated location-based business disruptions. Conversely, enhanced public safety measures, such as increased police presence, law enforcement, and improved public infrastructure, were associated with a reduction in these disruptions. Furthermore, an interesting insight was that businesses with longer operating histories tend to experience fewer location-based disruptions, indicating that operating history might be perceived as a resilience factor. The study suggests that policy actions should focus on increasing police visibility, providing financial support to high-risk businesses, funding urban regeneration projects, maintaining public infrastructure, and delivering social services aimed at helping marginalised communities escape vulnerability.

本研究调查了希腊首都雅典的社会脆弱性、非法活动和基于地理位置的商业干扰之间的关系。研究利用了 2008 年、2014 年和 2023 年的重复横截面数据，这些数据来自犯罪活动猖獗的地区，反映了这些地区的企业主和管理者的经历。研究结果表明，社会脆弱性水平的提高--包括非法毒品使用者和无家可归者的存在--以及与帮派相关的敲诈勒索和黑市经营等非法活动，与基于地点的商业干扰的增加有关。这些干扰表现为对员工和客户的攻击、商业盗窃、声誉受损、供应链问题和营业额下降。研究还考察了 2014 年和 2023 年经济状况的影响，当时希腊的国内生产总值低于 2008 年，表明出现了经济衰退。研究结果表明，这两年的经济衰退进一步加剧了基于地点的业务中断。相反，加强公共安全措施，如增加警力、执法和改善公共基础设施，则与这些干扰的减少有关。此外，一个有趣的现象是，经营历史较长的企业往往经历较少的基于地理位置的干扰，这表明经营历史可能被视为一个弹性因素。该研究建议，政策行动应侧重于提高警力、为高风险企业提供财政支持、资助城市复兴项目、维护公共基础设施，以及提供旨在帮助边缘化社区摆脱脆弱性的社会服务。

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引用次数: 0

Offense specialization among outlaw motorcycle gang members: Comparing specialization metrics 非法摩托车团伙成员的犯罪专业化：比较专业化指标

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102296

Purpose

We examine the extent of offense specialization among outlaw motorcycle gang affiliates across Australia using a multi-metric approach, and by doing so compare diverse measures of specialization.

Methods

The sample consisted of 19,633 offenses, committed by 2283 affiliates of outlaw motor cycle gangs (OMCGs), disaggregated into four offense categories: ongoing criminal enterprise, short-term instrumental, violence and intimidation, and other offenses against person. Six specialization metrics were employed to measure specialization among the full sample of affiliates and relevant subgroups.

Results

Of the six metrics employed to measure specialization, five suggested a high degree of versatility in offending among OMCG affiliates. Results were inconsistent across metrics when examining levels of specialization among subgroups of OMCG affiliates, and across offense categories.

Conclusions

OMCGs are highly versatile in their offending, demonstrating the importance of interventions targeting organized, violent and lower-level volume crime. However, different measures of specialization yielded inconsistent results and appeared to be measuring different constructs. The suitability of metrics is dependent on the nature of the data and research question of interest. Future specialization research should employ a multi-metric approach to thoroughly explore specialization and improve the ability for cross study comparisons.

目的我们采用多指标方法研究了澳大利亚非法摩托帮派附属组织的犯罪专业化程度，并以此比较了不同的专业化衡量标准。方法样本由非法摩托帮派（OMCGs）的2283名附属组织成员所犯的19633起罪行组成，分为四个犯罪类别：正在进行的犯罪活动、短期工具性犯罪、暴力和恐吓以及其他侵犯人身的犯罪。结果在用于衡量专业化程度的六个指标中，有五个指标表明，OMCG 附属团伙的犯罪具有高度的多样性。在研究OMCG附属机构子群体的专业化水平以及不同犯罪类别的专业化水平时，不同指标的结果并不一致。然而，不同的专业化衡量标准得出的结果并不一致，而且似乎在衡量不同的结构。衡量标准的适用性取决于数据的性质和感兴趣的研究问题。未来的专业化研究应采用多指标方法来深入探讨专业化问题，并提高交叉研究比较的能力。

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引用次数: 0

Juvenile fatalities in law enforcement encounters 执法过程中的青少年死亡事故

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102292

The use of deadly force by police is not typically associated with juveniles. However, a small percentage of cases do result in their deaths. Utilizing nationwide databases of fatalities involving law enforcement, 224 juvenile deaths were examined over a ten-year period. The majority of deaths were male and minorities. Most cases involved a weapon or the appearance of a weapon, with more than half of the youths having a firearm at the time of their death. Cases were mixed with respect to the suspect's “ flight status,” as many youths were not fleeing at the time of the incident. The circumstances of the deaths were examined for the neighborhood characteristics, such as educational attainment, youth poverty, juvenile population, and racial homogeneity of the area, as well as the situational factors involved at the time of the incident. The most predictive variable in all models was the percentage of Whites only population of the area. Analyses of these deaths shed light on the interactions police have with juveniles. Policy recommendations are included to reduce hostile police and juvenile interactions.

警察使用致命武力通常与青少年无关。然而，有一小部分案件确实导致了他们的死亡。利用全国范围内涉及执法人员死亡事件的数据库，对十年间 224 起青少年死亡事件进行了研究。大多数死亡者为男性和少数民族。大多数案件涉及武器或武器的外观，半数以上的青少年在死亡时持有枪支。在犯罪嫌疑人的 "逃跑状态 "方面，案件的情况参差不齐，因为许多青少年在案发时并没有逃跑。在研究死亡情况时，我们考虑了邻近地区的特征，如教育程度、青少年贫困状况、青少年人口、该地区的种族同质性，以及事发时所涉及的情景因素。在所有模型中，最具预测性的变量是该地区的白人人口比例。对这些死亡事件的分析揭示了警察与青少年之间的互动。其中包括减少警察与青少年之间敌对互动的政策建议。

引用次数: 0

Where are the guns? 枪在哪里？

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102289

We test the effectiveness of several common gun prevalence proxy variables against what are arguably the best measures of gun prevalence: firearm sales and concealed carry permits. With a comprehensive count of gun sales and concealed carry permits (by county and year) in the states of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, we make two main observations: First, gun sales/concealed carry permits are positively correlated with federal firearm licenses (gun dealers) per mile. Second, gun sales/concealed carry permits are not significantly positively correlated with federal firearm licenses per capita or the proportion of gun suicides to total suicides. We then discuss why this occurs and the limitations of using legal gun sales as a gun prevalence measure. Last, we show how the competing measures differ in terms of their associations with gun homicide. We find our preferred measure to have a strong positive association with gun homicides while many others do not. Consequently, we advise researchers to use gun dealers as a measure of gun prevalence and specifically in a way that considers markets bleeding over arbitrary lines (e.g., county, city, or neighborhood). This will especially be the case if one is interested in small geographic areas.

我们测试了几种常见的枪支流行替代变量对枪支流行的有效性，这些变量可以说是枪支流行的最佳衡量标准：枪支销售和隐蔽持枪许可证。通过对宾夕法尼亚州和马萨诸塞州的枪支销售和隐蔽持枪许可证（按县和年份）进行全面统计，我们得出了两个主要观察结果：首先，枪支销售/隐蔽持枪许可与每英里的联邦枪支执照（枪支经销商）呈正相关。其次，枪支销售/隐蔽携带许可证与人均联邦枪支执照或枪支自杀占自杀总数的比例没有明显的正相关关系。然后，我们讨论了出现这种情况的原因，以及使用合法枪支销售作为枪支流行率衡量标准的局限性。最后，我们展示了这些相互竞争的衡量标准与枪支凶杀案的关联有何不同。我们发现，我们首选的衡量标准与枪支凶杀案有很强的正相关性，而许多其他衡量标准则没有。因此，我们建议研究人员使用枪支经销商作为衡量枪支流行程度的标准，特别是要考虑到市场的任意界限（如县、市或社区）。如果研究人员对较小的地理区域感兴趣，情况尤其如此。

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引用次数: 0