Journal of Criminal Justice最新文献

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102316

Adam Lankford , Jason R. Silva

Background

Although an important subset of mass shooters has admitted copying previous shooters, there has been almost no empirical research on the similarities between mass shooting role models and their copycats. Such analysis is essential for understanding who is most susceptible to the influence of high-profile mass shooters and what behaviors they are likely to copy.

Methods

We first compiled all documented instances we could find globally of public mass shooters and active shooters becoming a role model for a copycat from 1966 to 2022 (n = 205) and calculated how often their risk profiles and behaviors were similar. Next, we ran simulated matches (n = 2000) and used binary logistic regression to test whether copycats were significantly more similar to their role models than to a random shooter.

Findings

Compared to a random shooter, copycat attackers were significantly closer to their role models in age and more likely to share the same sex, race, country, incident location type, and offender outcome. Nearly 80% of copycats attacked more than one year after their role model, and the average temporal gap was approximately eight years. Copycats averaged significantly fewer victims killed and wounded than their role models.

Conclusions

The risk that high-profile mass shooters influence copycat attackers persists for many years, with the most susceptible individuals sharing characteristics of the role model shooters themselves. These findings could be used to make media coverage of mass shootings safer and to inform triage and case prioritization for threat assessment and violence prevention.

背景尽管大规模枪杀案中的一个重要子集承认模仿过以前的枪手，但几乎没有关于大规模枪杀案榜样和模仿者之间相似性的实证研究。这种分析对于了解哪些人最容易受到高知名度的大规模枪击案凶手的影响以及他们有可能模仿哪些行为至关重要。我们首先汇编了从 1966 年到 2022 年全球范围内我们能找到的所有公开大规模枪击案凶手和主动枪击案凶手成为模仿者榜样的有据可查的事例（n = 205），并计算了他们的风险特征和行为相似的频率。接下来，我们进行了模拟匹配（n = 2000），并使用二元逻辑回归来检验模仿者与其榜样的相似程度是否明显高于随机枪手。研究结果与随机枪手相比，模仿者在年龄上明显更接近其榜样，更有可能具有相同的性别、种族、国家、事件地点类型和犯罪结果。近 80% 的模仿者在其榜样案发一年后才发动袭击，平均时间差约为八年。结论高知名度的大规模枪击案凶手影响模仿攻击者的风险持续多年，最易受影响的个人与榜样凶手本身具有相同的特征。这些发现可用于使媒体对大规模枪击事件的报道更加安全，并为威胁评估和暴力预防的分流和案件优先顺序提供信息。

{"title":"Similarities between copycat mass shooters and their role models: An empirical analysis with implications for threat assessment and violence prevention","authors":"Adam Lankford , Jason R. Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Although an important subset of mass shooters has admitted copying previous shooters, there has been almost no empirical research on the similarities between mass shooting role models and their copycats. Such analysis is essential for understanding who is most susceptible to the influence of high-profile mass shooters and what behaviors they are likely to copy.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We first compiled all documented instances we could find globally of public mass shooters and active shooters becoming a role model for a copycat from 1966 to 2022 (<em>n</em> = 205) and calculated how often their risk profiles and behaviors were similar. Next, we ran simulated matches (<em>n</em> = 2000) and used binary logistic regression to test whether copycats were significantly more similar to their role models than to a random shooter.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Compared to a random shooter, copycat attackers were significantly closer to their role models in age and more likely to share the same sex, race, country, incident location type, and offender outcome. Nearly 80% of copycats attacked more than one year after their role model, and the average temporal gap was approximately eight years. Copycats averaged significantly fewer victims killed and wounded than their role models.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The risk that high-profile mass shooters influence copycat attackers persists for many years, with the most susceptible individuals sharing characteristics of the role model shooters themselves. These findings could be used to make media coverage of mass shootings safer and to inform triage and case prioritization for threat assessment and violence prevention.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102316"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142652967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Prosecutorial discretion not to invoke the criminal process and its impact on firearm cases 检察官不援引刑事诉讼程序的酌处权及其对枪支案件的影响

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102313

Francesca A. Amaral , Charles E. Loeffler , Greg Ridgeway

Purpose

Using detailed case-level data on firearm arrests in Philadelphia, both before and after the formal adoption of progressive prosecution policies, this paper examines the multiple organizational channels through which progressive prosecution has been theorized to impact firearm prosecutions. These include direct policy impacts, indirect policy spillovers, returns from resource reallocation, and personnel changes.

Methods

To examine these effects throughout the life of a case, we combine descriptive and formal statistical models, including regression, proportional hazards models, and overlap indices.

Results

There is little evidence that high-profile progressive prosecution policies impacted initial charging decisions on gun prosecutions. Conversely, there is also no evidence that reprioritization away from non-violent offenses, at least in the short-term, increased the available resources to address gun cases. However, there is evidence that the arrival of progressive prosecution in Philadelphia led to a temporary decline in the experience of prosecutors working gun cases and that this change could at least partially explain an observed short-term increase in case dismissals and open cases.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest progressive prosecution, while not begun as an effort to impact gun prosecution, still may have impacted it, albeit to a much smaller extent than that observed for its focal priorities.

目的本文利用费城在正式采用渐进式起诉政策前后枪支逮捕案件的详细数据，研究了渐进式起诉理论对枪支起诉产生影响的多种组织渠道，包括直接的政策影响、间接的政策溢出效应、资源重新分配带来的回报以及人事变动。这些渠道包括直接的政策影响、间接的政策溢出效应、资源重新分配带来的回报以及人事变动。结果几乎没有证据表明，备受瞩目的渐进式起诉政策影响了最初的枪支起诉决定。相反，也没有证据表明，至少在短期内，重新确定非暴力犯罪的优先次序增加了处理枪支案件的可用资源。然而，有证据表明，费城渐进式起诉的到来导致检察官处理枪支案件的经验暂时下降，而这一变化至少可以部分解释所观察到的撤销案件和未决案件的短期增加。结论我们的研究结果表明，渐进式起诉虽然不是作为影响枪支起诉的努力而开始的，但仍可能对枪支起诉产生了影响，尽管影响程度远小于其重点优先事项的影响程度。

{"title":"Prosecutorial discretion not to invoke the criminal process and its impact on firearm cases","authors":"Francesca A. Amaral , Charles E. Loeffler , Greg Ridgeway","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>Using detailed case-level data on firearm arrests in Philadelphia, both before and after the formal adoption of progressive prosecution policies, this paper examines the multiple organizational channels through which progressive prosecution has been theorized to impact firearm prosecutions. These include direct policy impacts, indirect policy spillovers, returns from resource reallocation, and personnel changes.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>To examine these effects throughout the life of a case, we combine descriptive and formal statistical models, including regression, proportional hazards models, and overlap indices.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>There is little evidence that high-profile progressive prosecution policies impacted initial charging decisions on gun prosecutions. Conversely, there is also no evidence that reprioritization away from non-violent offenses, at least in the short-term, increased the available resources to address gun cases. However, there is evidence that the arrival of progressive prosecution in Philadelphia led to a temporary decline in the experience of prosecutors working gun cases and that this change could at least partially explain an observed short-term increase in case dismissals and open cases.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Our findings suggest progressive prosecution, while not begun as an effort to impact gun prosecution, still may have impacted it, albeit to a much smaller extent than that observed for its focal priorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102313"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Correlates of victim services for fraud and identity theft among victim service providers 受害者服务提供者为欺诈和身份盗窃受害者提供服务的相关因素

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102318

Cooper A. Maher, Rachel M. Corsello, Timothy A. Engle, James D. Kuhlman, Joseph L. Nedelec

Victim service providers assist thousands of victims of crime in the United States each year. However, little is known about the extent to which these organizations serve victims of crime often perpetrated online, such as identity theft and financial fraud. Moreover, absent from the literature is an empirical assessment of what factors predict the inclusion of services for victims of these crimes. Using a sample from the 2019 National Survey of Victim Service Providers (n = 1649) the current study investigated factors related to the provision of services for victims of financial fraud and identity theft, and the number of victims served for each of these crime types. Findings suggested that certain organizational services such as providing restitution claim assistance and document replacement services were associated with greater odds providing services to financial fraud and identity theft victims. Organizational characteristics, such as having a hotline/chatline, the number of external partnerships, and the number of volunteers also predicted providing those services. The findings suggest the importance of logistical constraints on providing these services and are discussed in light of previous research on the topic, as well as policy implications and limitations.

在美国，受害者服务提供者每年为成千上万的犯罪受害者提供帮助。然而，对于这些组织在多大程度上为经常在网上实施的犯罪（如身份盗用和金融欺诈）的受害者提供服务，人们知之甚少。此外，文献中也没有对哪些因素可以预测这些犯罪的受害者是否接受服务进行实证评估。本研究利用 2019 年受害者服务提供者全国调查（n = 1649）的样本，调查了为金融欺诈和身份盗用受害者提供服务的相关因素，以及为每种犯罪类型提供服务的受害者人数。研究结果表明，某些组织服务（如提供归还索赔援助和文件更换服务）与为金融欺诈和身份盗窃受害者提供服务的几率更大相关。拥有热线/聊天室、外部合作伙伴数量和志愿者人数等组织特征也预示着提供这些服务的可能性。研究结果表明了提供这些服务的后勤限制因素的重要性，并结合以往有关该主题的研究以及政策影响和局限性进行了讨论。

{"title":"Correlates of victim services for fraud and identity theft among victim service providers","authors":"Cooper A. Maher, Rachel M. Corsello, Timothy A. Engle, James D. Kuhlman, Joseph L. Nedelec","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Victim service providers assist thousands of victims of crime in the United States each year. However, little is known about the extent to which these organizations serve victims of crime often perpetrated online, such as identity theft and financial fraud. Moreover, absent from the literature is an empirical assessment of what factors predict the inclusion of services for victims of these crimes. Using a sample from the 2019 National Survey of Victim Service Providers (<em>n</em> = 1649) the current study investigated factors related to the provision of services for victims of financial fraud and identity theft, and the number of victims served for each of these crime types. Findings suggested that certain organizational services such as providing restitution claim assistance and document replacement services were associated with greater odds providing services to financial fraud and identity theft victims. Organizational characteristics, such as having a hotline/chatline, the number of external partnerships, and the number of volunteers also predicted providing those services. The findings suggest the importance of logistical constraints on providing these services and are discussed in light of previous research on the topic, as well as policy implications and limitations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102318"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142652974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Head injury, sleep disturbance, and delinquent offending: Evidence from a longitudinal sample of juvenile detainees 头部受伤、睡眠障碍和违法犯罪：来自青少年被拘留者纵向样本的证据

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102310

Kristina Block , Eric J. Connolly

Juvenile youth are disproportionately more likely to experience head injury (HI), and HI is associated with reoffending. Yet, little is currently known about the extent to which common symptoms of HI – such as sleep disturbance – condition this relationship. The current study uses prospective data to investigate within-individual changes in HI and reoffending and the moderating role of sleep disturbance on these associations across males and females. Data are drawn from the Northwestern Juvenile Project (NJP), a longitudinal sample of previously adjudicated juveniles. Random intercept cross-lagged models are estimated to assess within-individual changes in HI, violent offending, and nonviolent offending over a two-year period as well as the moderating role of sleep disturbance. Findings indicate that within-individual increases in HI are associated with within-individual increases in violent, but not nonviolent offending. The relation between HI and violent offending is stronger at higher levels of sleep disturbance for males, but not females. Taken together, the results suggest that relations between HI and offending are complex, with different mechanisms likely explaining associations across males and females.

青少年头部受伤（HI）的几率过高，而头部受伤又与重新犯罪有关。然而，目前人们对头部损伤的常见症状（如睡眠障碍）在多大程度上影响这种关系还知之甚少。本研究利用前瞻性数据，调查 HI 和重新犯罪在个体内部的变化，以及睡眠障碍对男性和女性之间这些关联的调节作用。数据来自西北青少年项目（NJP），该项目是对曾被判刑的青少年的纵向抽样调查。通过随机截距交叉滞后模型的估计，评估了两年内HI、暴力犯罪和非暴力犯罪的个体内部变化以及睡眠障碍的调节作用。研究结果表明，健康指数的个体内部增长与暴力犯罪的个体内部增长有关，但与非暴力犯罪无关。在睡眠障碍水平较高的情况下，男性 HI 与暴力犯罪之间的关系更为密切，而女性则不然。总之，研究结果表明，睡眠障碍与犯罪之间的关系是复杂的，可能有不同的机制来解释男性和女性之间的关系。

{"title":"Head injury, sleep disturbance, and delinquent offending: Evidence from a longitudinal sample of juvenile detainees","authors":"Kristina Block , Eric J. Connolly","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102310","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Juvenile youth are disproportionately more likely to experience head injury (HI), and HI is associated with reoffending. Yet, little is currently known about the extent to which common symptoms of HI – such as sleep disturbance – condition this relationship. The current study uses prospective data to investigate within-individual changes in HI and reoffending and the moderating role of sleep disturbance on these associations across males and females. Data are drawn from the Northwestern Juvenile Project (NJP), a longitudinal sample of previously adjudicated juveniles. Random intercept cross-lagged models are estimated to assess within-individual changes in HI, violent offending, and nonviolent offending over a two-year period as well as the moderating role of sleep disturbance. Findings indicate that within-individual increases in HI are associated with within-individual increases in violent, but not nonviolent offending. The relation between HI and violent offending is stronger at higher levels of sleep disturbance for males, but not females. Taken together, the results suggest that relations between HI and offending are complex, with different mechanisms likely explaining associations across males and females.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102310"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Examining the connection between mental illness and recidivism for persons on parole 研究精神病与假释人员累犯之间的联系

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102315

D. Michael Applegarth

Mental illness (MI) is prevalent among people who are incarcerated and under community supervision. Despite this, the nature of the relationship between MI and recidivism is yet to be fully understood. Using an administrative dataset from the state of Georgia (n = 24,046), this study examined the extent to which individuals with MI on parole have a greater likelihood of rearrest – over a three-year period – than individuals without MI. Across the sample, increased assessed risk (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI [1.12–1.16]) and increased positive drug tests (OR = 1.64, 95 % CI [1.42–1.91]) predicted a greater likelihood of rearrest. Increased time employed reduced the likelihood of rearrest (OR = 0.39, 95 % CI [0.35–0.44]). MI was associated with increased odds of being rearrested (OR = 1.17, 95 % CI [1.07–1.27]). MI was also found to moderate the relationships between both substance use and employment with being rearrested.

精神病（MI）在被监禁和接受社区监管的人群中十分普遍。尽管如此，人们对精神疾病与累犯之间关系的性质仍未充分了解。本研究利用佐治亚州的行政数据集（n = 24,046），研究了假释期间患有精神分裂症的人比没有精神分裂症的人在三年内再次被逮捕的可能性有多大。在所有样本中，评估风险的增加（OR = 1.14，95 % CI [1.12-1.16]）和毒品检测阳性率的增加（OR = 1.64，95 % CI [1.42-1.91]）预示着再次被捕的可能性更大。就业时间的增加会降低再次被捕的可能性（OR = 0.39，95 % CI [0.35-0.44]）。MI 与再次被捕的几率增加有关（OR = 1.17，95 % CI [1.07-1.27]）。研究还发现，吸毒和就业与再次被捕之间的关系中，不良嗜好也有缓和作用。

引用次数: 0

Vote choice in the context of lethal police violence: A research note 警察致命暴力背景下的投票选择：研究说明

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102319

Jonathan C. Reid

Do police-caused deaths predict presidential vote choice in the US? This study explores the relationship between lethal police violence and vote choice in the 2020 presidential election using individual-level data from Harvard University's Cooperative Election Study (CES), which has been linked with aggregate-level data on police killings, civilian homicide rates, and socioeconomic, political, and public health characteristics. Consistent with the issue ownership theory of voting, this study finds that voters living in areas characterized by lethal police violence are significantly more likely to vote for the Democratic Party above and beyond their individual-level attributes and other contextual conditions. These findings and supplemental analyses raise critical questions concerning the political salience of fatal force in presidential races in the post-2020 era. Findings also support the need for further criminological inquiry into the effects of different forms of violence on American political behavior.

警察造成的死亡是否能预测美国总统的投票选择？本研究利用哈佛大学 "合作选举研究"（CES）中的个人层面数据，探讨了致命性警察暴力与 2020 年总统选举投票选择之间的关系，这些数据已与有关警察杀人、平民凶杀率以及社会经济、政治和公共卫生特征的总体层面数据相链接。与投票的问题所有权理论相一致，本研究发现，生活在以致命警察暴力为特征的地区的选民更有可能投票给民主党，远远超过他们个人层面的属性和其他背景条件。这些发现和补充分析提出了有关 2020 年后致命武力在总统竞选中的政治显著性的关键问题。研究结果还证明，有必要进一步从犯罪学角度探讨不同形式的暴力对美国政治行为的影响。

引用次数: 0

Effects of substance use treatment on recidivism for youth in need of treatment 药物使用治疗对需要治疗的青少年累犯的影响

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102304

Jennifer Pankow , George W. Joe , Angela A. Robertson , Sheena K. Gardner , Larkin Street McReynolds , Megan F. Dickson , John P. Bartkowski , Nancy Arrigona , Pernilla Johansson , Elizabeth D. Joseph , Kate E. Krupka , Thomas B. Sease , Danica Kalling Knight

Purpose and method

The association between illegal activity and substance use (SU) is prominent in juvenile populations, underscoring the importance of gaining a better understanding about SU treatment as a strategy to reduce recidivism. Youth records (N = 9165) from 12 juvenile justice programs in JJ-TRIALS examined the impact of treatment on the relationship between treatment need and time to recidivism.

Results

The 4-step mediation analysis demonstrated: (1) treatment need significantly relates to time to recidivism (p < .0002); (2) treatment need positively predicts treatment length (p ≤ .0001); (3) treatment length positively predicts time to recidivism (p < .0001); and (4), full mediation. Specifically, more treatment significantly predicted a longer time to recidivism such that youth with an identified need receiving treatment (Group A) had a longer time to recidivism than youth with a treatment need who did not receive services (Group B). A survival distribution curve illustrates that 14 % of youth in Group A had a recidivism event during the study, compared to 98 % of youth in Group B.

Conclusions

Outcomes point to the benefit of expanded treatment services for youth in juvenile justice. Services include early identification of treatment needs, treatment referrals, and treatment receipt to reduce recidivism risk.

目的和方法在青少年群体中，非法活动与药物使用（SU）之间的联系非常突出，这就强调了更好地了解SU治疗作为减少累犯策略的重要性。JJ-TRIALS中12个少年司法项目的青少年记录（N = 9165）研究了治疗对治疗需求和再犯时间之间关系的影响。结果四步中介分析表明：（1）治疗需求与再犯时间有显著关系（p < .0002）；（2）治疗需求可积极预测治疗时间（p ≤ .0001）；（3）治疗时间可积极预测再犯时间（p < .0001）；（4）完全中介。具体地说，治疗次数越多，再犯时间越长，因此，与有治疗需求但未接受服务的青少年（B 组）相比，有治疗需求但接受治疗的青少年（A 组）再犯时间更长。生存分布曲线显示，在研究期间，A 组中有 14% 的青少年有再犯行为，而 B 组中有 98% 的青少年有再犯行为。这些服务包括早期识别治疗需求、治疗转介和接受治疗，以降低再犯风险。

{"title":"Effects of substance use treatment on recidivism for youth in need of treatment","authors":"Jennifer Pankow , George W. Joe , Angela A. Robertson , Sheena K. Gardner , Larkin Street McReynolds , Megan F. Dickson , John P. Bartkowski , Nancy Arrigona , Pernilla Johansson , Elizabeth D. Joseph , Kate E. Krupka , Thomas B. Sease , Danica Kalling Knight","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose and method</h3><div>The association between illegal activity and substance use (SU) is prominent in juvenile populations, underscoring the importance of gaining a better understanding about SU treatment as a strategy to reduce recidivism. Youth records (<em>N</em> = 9165) from 12 juvenile justice programs in JJ-TRIALS examined the impact of treatment on the relationship between treatment need and time to recidivism.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The 4-step mediation analysis demonstrated: (1) treatment need significantly relates to time to recidivism (<em>p</em> < .0002); (2) treatment need positively predicts treatment length (<em>p</em> ≤ .0001); (3) treatment length positively predicts time to recidivism (<em>p</em> < .0001); and (4), full mediation. Specifically, more treatment significantly predicted a longer time to recidivism such that youth with an identified need receiving treatment (Group A) had a longer time to recidivism than youth with a treatment need who did not receive services (Group B). A survival distribution curve illustrates that 14 % of youth in Group A had a recidivism event during the study, compared to 98 % of youth in Group B.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Outcomes point to the benefit of expanded treatment services for youth in juvenile justice. Services include early identification of treatment needs, treatment referrals, and treatment receipt to reduce recidivism risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102304"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142560634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Identifying subpopulations in forensic addiction care: A latent class analysis 确定法医成瘾护理中的亚人群：潜类分析

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102309

Ilse Luteijn , Joanne E.L. VanDerNagel , Inti A. Brazil , Arnt Schellekens

Purpose

Forensic patients with substance use disorder (SUD) vary in clinical.

characteristics like psychiatric comorbidity, including mild intellectual disability (MID). In this study, we examined whether different patient classes could be identified based on type of psychiatric diagnosis (including MID) and historic risk factors at treatment start, using Latent Class Analysis (LCA); whether these classes differed on risk behavior during treatment and treatment outcomes; and whether MID was associated with risk behavior and treatment outcomes.

Method

Data were retrieved from health records in a forensic addiction treatment centre in the Netherlands (n = 252). Information included DSM-5 diagnoses, historical risk factors for recidivism and treatment outcomes (urine toxicology, number of aggression incidents and drop-out).

Results

We identified four patient-classes, including one with a high prevalence of psychopathology and high historic risks, one with severe past substance use and long treatment history and two classes with low historic risks. These classed did not differ in risk behavior or treatment outcomes. MID was associated with risk behavior during treatment, but not with treatment outcomes.

Conclusions

These data suggest that though subgroups of forensic addiction patients are identifiable, historic risks do not predict variations in treatment outcomes, and that co-occurring MID might be clinically more relevant.

目的患有药物使用障碍（SUD）的法医患者的临床特征各不相同，如精神疾病合并症，包括轻度智力障碍（MID）。在这项研究中，我们使用潜类分析法（LCA）研究了是否可以根据精神病诊断类型（包括轻度智力障碍）和治疗开始时的历史风险因素确定不同的患者类别；这些类别在治疗期间的风险行为和治疗结果上是否存在差异；以及轻度智力障碍是否与风险行为和治疗结果相关。信息包括DSM-5诊断、历史再犯风险因素和治疗结果（尿液毒理学、侵犯事件数量和辍学）。结果我们确定了四类患者，包括一类精神病理学患病率高且历史风险高的患者、一类既往药物使用严重且治疗史长的患者和两类历史风险低的患者。这些类别的患者在危险行为或治疗结果方面没有差异。这些数据表明，虽然法医成瘾患者的亚群是可以识别的，但历史风险并不能预测治疗结果的变化，同时存在的 MID 在临床上可能更具相关性。

{"title":"Identifying subpopulations in forensic addiction care: A latent class analysis","authors":"Ilse Luteijn , Joanne E.L. VanDerNagel , Inti A. Brazil , Arnt Schellekens","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>Forensic patients with substance use disorder (SUD) vary in clinical.</div><div>characteristics like psychiatric comorbidity, including mild intellectual disability (MID). In this study, we examined whether different patient classes could be identified based on type of psychiatric diagnosis (including MID) and historic risk factors at treatment start, using Latent Class Analysis (LCA); whether these classes differed on risk behavior during treatment and treatment outcomes; and whether MID was associated with risk behavior and treatment outcomes.</div></div><div><h3>Method</h3><div>Data were retrieved from health records in a forensic addiction treatment centre in the Netherlands (<em>n</em> = 252). Information included DSM-5 diagnoses, historical risk factors for recidivism and treatment outcomes (urine toxicology, number of aggression incidents and drop-out).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>We identified four patient-classes, including one with a high prevalence of psychopathology and high historic risks, one with severe past substance use and long treatment history and two classes with low historic risks. These classed did not differ in risk behavior or treatment outcomes. MID was associated with risk behavior during treatment, but not with treatment outcomes.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>These data suggest that though subgroups of forensic addiction patients are identifiable, historic risks do not predict variations in treatment outcomes, and that co-occurring MID might be clinically more relevant.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102309"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142560635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effects of Covid-19 stay-at-home orders on street and cybercrimes in a Brazilian city Covid-19 留守令对巴西某城市街头犯罪和网络犯罪的影响

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102314

Vitor S. Goncalves, Mark C. Stafford

The COVID-19 pandemic led public officials to impose stay-at-home orders, dramatically changing individuals' routine activities. With people spending more time at home, opportunities for street crimes were expected to decrease, while cybercrimes were expected to increase. This study examines the effects of stay-at-home orders on police reports of street crimes (theft, auto theft, residential burglary, and robbery) and cybercrimes (online fraud) in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. We utilized ARIMA Interrupted Time Series models, incorporating weekly data from 2017 to 2022. The findings largely supported the hypothesis for street crimes, particularly theft and auto theft. These crimes, which often occur in crowded areas and during events, had a significant decrease due to reduced public gatherings resulting from the orders. However, the orders did not significantly impact robberies and residential burglaries, possibly indicating that offenders quickly found new opportunities. Contrary to expectations, the orders did not lead to an increase in cybercrimes. According to routine activity theory, crime occurs when motivated offenders, suitable targets, and the absence of capable guardians converge in time and space. However, the digital realm challenges this prediction due to the disruption of traditional notions of time and space.

COVID-19 大流行导致政府官员下达了居家禁令，极大地改变了个人的日常活动。随着人们花更多时间待在家里，预计街头犯罪的机会会减少，而网络犯罪则会增加。本研究探讨了 "足不出户令 "对巴西贝洛奥里藏特街头犯罪（盗窃、汽车盗窃、住宅盗窃和抢劫）和网络犯罪（网络诈骗）警方报告的影响。我们利用 ARIMA 中断时间序列模型，纳入了 2017 年至 2022 年的每周数据。研究结果在很大程度上支持了关于街头犯罪的假设，尤其是盗窃和汽车盗窃。这些犯罪通常发生在人群密集的地区和活动期间，由于命令导致公众聚集减少，这些犯罪显著减少。然而，这些命令并没有对抢劫和入室盗窃产生重大影响，这可能表明犯罪分子很快就找到了新的机会。与预期相反，这些命令并没有导致网络犯罪的增加。根据常规活动理论，当有动机的罪犯、合适的目标以及缺乏有能力的监护人在时间和空间上汇聚在一起时，犯罪就会发生。然而，由于传统的时间和空间概念被打破，数字领域对这一预测提出了挑战。

{"title":"The effects of Covid-19 stay-at-home orders on street and cybercrimes in a Brazilian city","authors":"Vitor S. Goncalves, Mark C. Stafford","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic led public officials to impose stay-at-home orders, dramatically changing individuals' routine activities. With people spending more time at home, opportunities for street crimes were expected to decrease, while cybercrimes were expected to increase. This study examines the effects of stay-at-home orders on police reports of street crimes (theft, auto theft, residential burglary, and robbery) and cybercrimes (online fraud) in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. We utilized ARIMA Interrupted Time Series models, incorporating weekly data from 2017 to 2022. The findings largely supported the hypothesis for street crimes, particularly theft and auto theft. These crimes, which often occur in crowded areas and during events, had a significant decrease due to reduced public gatherings resulting from the orders. However, the orders did not significantly impact robberies and residential burglaries, possibly indicating that offenders quickly found new opportunities. Contrary to expectations, the orders did not lead to an increase in cybercrimes. According to routine activity theory, crime occurs when motivated offenders, suitable targets, and the absence of capable guardians converge in time and space. However, the digital realm challenges this prediction due to the disruption of traditional notions of time and space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Head injury and aggressive behavior: Examining sex differences and the role of related risk factors 头部受伤与攻击行为：研究性别差异和相关风险因素的作用

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102317

Lisa A. Kort-Butler , Trenton M. Haltom , Jessica Phelps

Youth are at high risk for head injuries, yet many injuries go unassessed. Treatment patterns may also vary by sex, influencing outcomes. This exploratory study investigated the potential relationship among sex, a history of head injuries, and recent aggressive behavior in emerging adults, and considered how other risk factors may influence these associations. Analyzing a survey of emerging adults (n = 910), nearly half of women and two-thirds of men reported at least one lifetime head injury; many went untreated. Women more often received medical care; men received more concussion diagnoses. In the full sample, head injuries increased aggressive behavior similarly among women and men. Related risk factors – psychological distress, temper, and past delinquency – accounted for the relationship between head injuries and recent aggressive behavior. Among people with head injuries, sex differences in injury experiences did not result in differences in aggressive behavior. Prevention and intervention efforts should attune to undetected and untreated injuries, and to psychosocial and behavioral risk factors associated with head injuries.

青少年是颅脑损伤的高危人群，但很多损伤都没有得到评估。治疗模式也可能因性别而异，从而影响治疗效果。这项探索性研究调查了新成人中性别、头部受伤史和近期攻击行为之间的潜在关系，并考虑了其他风险因素如何影响这些关联。通过对一项新成人调查（n = 910）进行分析，发现近一半的女性和三分之二的男性报告说一生中至少受过一次头部伤害；其中许多人没有得到治疗。女性更常接受治疗，而男性则更多地被诊断为脑震荡。在全部样本中，女性和男性受头部伤害后攻击行为增加的情况相似。相关的风险因素--心理困扰、脾气和过去的犯罪行为--解释了头部受伤与近期攻击行为之间的关系。在头部受伤者中，受伤经历的性别差异不会导致攻击行为的差异。预防和干预工作应关注未被发现和治疗的损伤，以及与头部损伤相关的社会心理和行为风险因素。

{"title":"Head injury and aggressive behavior: Examining sex differences and the role of related risk factors","authors":"Lisa A. Kort-Butler , Trenton M. Haltom , Jessica Phelps","doi":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Youth are at high risk for head injuries, yet many injuries go unassessed. Treatment patterns may also vary by sex, influencing outcomes. This exploratory study investigated the potential relationship among sex, a history of head injuries, and recent aggressive behavior in emerging adults, and considered how other risk factors may influence these associations. Analyzing a survey of emerging adults (<em>n</em> = 910), nearly half of women and two-thirds of men reported at least one lifetime head injury; many went untreated. Women more often received medical care; men received more concussion diagnoses. In the full sample, head injuries increased aggressive behavior similarly among women and men. Related risk factors – psychological distress, temper, and past delinquency – accounted for the relationship between head injuries and recent aggressive behavior. Among people with head injuries, sex differences in injury experiences did not result in differences in aggressive behavior. Prevention and intervention efforts should attune to undetected and untreated injuries, and to psychosocial and behavioral risk factors associated with head injuries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48272,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Criminal Justice","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102317"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142652968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0