The transfer of employment structure: Export expansion and the rise of lower-middle-skill occupations in China

Abstract

Job polarization is common in advanced countries due to routine-biased technological changes and globalization. In developing countries, however, the employment structure is left unexplored. This research finds that China has witnessed a reverse trend in the employment structure since 2000. In particular, job counter-polarization was seen due to the disproportionate rise in lower-middle-skill occupations. Further study provides evidence that export expansion increases the employment share of lower-middle-skill occupations. Mechanism analysis shows that export expansion increases routine-tasks intensive occupations, which are also lower-middle-skill occupations. This paper provides new insights into occupational structure based on typical facts in China and examines the hypotheses of routine-biased technological change and globalization from a novel perspective.