Analysis of China's energy consumption and intensity during the 13th five-year plan period

Abstract

China has set ambitious energy and climate targets to support sustainable development. However, the pace of energy intensity reduction has slowed, while energy consumption continues to grow. Comprehending recent trends in energy consumption and intensity performance is essential for advancing the country's energy transition and conservation efforts. Using an input-output framework, this study reveals that (1) the COVID-19 pandemic indirectly spiked energy consumption in energy-intensive sectors such as S11-Petroleum & Coke and S12-Chemicials, with some impacts likely to persist due to behavioral shifts; (2) key supply chain nodes like S15-Metal products and S34-Leasing & Business services may have been overlooked in current energy conservation policies focused on production or consumption; (3) energy intensity reduction curbed energy consumption growth significantly during 2015–2018, while increased total final demand remained the dominant driver of consumption growth; and (4) major energy users, such as S14-Metals, S11 and S13- Non-metallic minerals, experienced a deterioration in energy intensity during 2018–2020, indicating that conservation-focused policies alone are insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in this ratio indicator. Policy implications, such as fostering high-tech manufacturing and enhancing product differentiation, are discussed as vital strategies for future energy conservation efforts.