{"title":"The influence of coal price uncertainty on investment and consumption dynamics: Evidence from China","authors":"Boqiang Lin, Tianxu Lan","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114517","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coal, being a pivotal energy source in China, exerts a profound influence on investment and consumption, thereby shaping market supply-demand dynamics and economic trajectories. By employing the local projection method, this research delves into the impacts of coal price uncertainty shocks (CPU) on investment and consumption across various Chinese provinces. The key findings of the article are as follows: (1) CPU shocks exert a significant suppressive effect on both investment and consumption in China; (2) the influence of CPU on consumption and investment exhibits notable regional heterogeneity and nonlinear characteristics; (3) By integrating the regime-switching model, the study differentiates China's new energy development into high and low stages. The results demonstrate that the new energy advancement effectively alleviates the negative impacts of CPU on investment and consumption. Finally, based on these findings, the article offers targeted policy recommendations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"198 ","pages":"Article 114517"},"PeriodicalIF":9.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421525000242","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Coal, being a pivotal energy source in China, exerts a profound influence on investment and consumption, thereby shaping market supply-demand dynamics and economic trajectories. By employing the local projection method, this research delves into the impacts of coal price uncertainty shocks (CPU) on investment and consumption across various Chinese provinces. The key findings of the article are as follows: (1) CPU shocks exert a significant suppressive effect on both investment and consumption in China; (2) the influence of CPU on consumption and investment exhibits notable regional heterogeneity and nonlinear characteristics; (3) By integrating the regime-switching model, the study differentiates China's new energy development into high and low stages. The results demonstrate that the new energy advancement effectively alleviates the negative impacts of CPU on investment and consumption. Finally, based on these findings, the article offers targeted policy recommendations.
期刊介绍：
Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques.
Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.
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