Seismic fragility analysis of slopes: Method development, practical application and future prospects

Abstract

Seismic fragility represents conditional probabilities of exceeding various limit states of an engineering system under a range of seismic hazard levels, which is a prerequisite procedure in the framework of probabilistic seismic risk assessment, performance-based earthquake engineering, and seismic resilience assessment. Recently, seismic fragility analysis has also emerged as an efficient tool to assess slope seismic performance and earthquake-triggered landslide risk. The increasing number of published studies concerning seismic fragility of slopes and slope-related earth structures demonstrates a substantial increase in interest in the topic of slope seismic fragility assessment. Many advanced technologies and methods have been employed for slope seismic fragility analysis, and great achievements have been made in previous studies. However, development in this field has not previously been reviewed. The objective of this study was to systematically review recent advancements and applications of seismic fragility in the field of slope engineering. Different fragility analysis methods in slope engineering, along with their features, advantages, and limitations, are introduced and reviewed. Prior necessary procedures in slope fragility analysis, including uncertainty quantification, the determination of slope engineering demand parameters, and the identification of optimal earthquake intensity measures, are given particular attention. The practical applications of slope seismic fragility analysis are also comprehensively introduced, such as using fragility curves to assess slope performance and risk, the selection of optimal strengthening measures in slope engineering, and fragility analysis of structures/infrastructure under earthquake-induced slope geological disasters. Finally, prospects, needs, and recommendations for future studies are also identified and provided.