Impacts of climate change on rainfall variability in Central Tunisian highlands and planning challenges

Abstract

This study examines rainfall patterns in Central Tunisia’s highlands using 60 years of data from 21 stations. By analyzing both monthly and yearly rainfall data, the research investigates how precipitation varies across space and time. Interestingly, a “downward approach” was used, starting with simpler analyses of yearly data, and progressing to incorporate more detailed monthly information. The analysis revealed that while most areas saw an increase in the intensity of rainfall events, some low-altitude semi-arid areas experienced more frequent dry spells. This suggests a potential rise in drought risk for these specific locations. Additionally, the study highlights significant spatial variability in rainfall patterns across the region, with a decrease from east to west and north to south. This irregularity may impact land use and hinder planning strategies in these regions.