Uncertainties About the Role of River and Mangrove Dissolved Inorganic Carbon and Alkalinity Loads in Buffering the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon

Abstract

Terrestrial dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TAlk) loads have contrasting effects on the pH and carbonate chemistry of the coastal ocean. While TAlk can buffer against ocean acidification, elevated exports of free CO₂ can further exacerbate ocean acidification. In this study, we quantify terrestrial DIC and TAlk loads from rivers and mangrove floodplains across six bioregions and varying flow conditions to assess their impact on the buffering capacity of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon in Australia. For a mid-flow year, median terrestrial DIC and TAlk loads ranged from 0.72 to 0.89 Tg C yr⁻¹ and 0.26 to 1.03 Tg C yr⁻¹, respectively. We find that mangrove-dominated terrestrial inputs only have a small influence on the whole GBR but contribute 12.5% (range: 1.9%–45.7%) of the DIC and 18.7% (range: 2.8%–68.2%) of the TAlk inner shelf inventory. Depending on the approach used to estimate TAlk loads, mangroves have a potential short-term buffering effect on near-shore coastal waters due to higher TAlk loads. However, long-term mangrove TAlk production via pyrite formation complicates this interpretation, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring to understand the complex interplay between terrestrial inputs and their effect on the GBR carbonate chemistry.