Predicting the Effect of Temperature Changes on Phlebotomus papatasi Activity, as the Main Vector of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Iran

IF 3.5 2区 农林科学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI:10.1155/tbed/9518371
Faramarz Bozorg-Omid, Fahimeh Youssefi, Gholamreza Hassanpour, Abbas Rahimi Foroushani, Mohammad Rahimi, Mohammad Reza Shirzadi, Reza Jafari, Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd
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Abstract

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) represents a significant vector-borne disease in Iran. Our study examined the status of zoonotic CL (ZCL) in the country and forecasted the influence of global climate change on the monthly activity of Phlebotomus papatasi, the main vector of ZCL in the country. To predict the impact of climate change on the monthly activity of Ph. papatasi, we obtained the monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures for both the reference and future periods, using the MIROC6 model and two different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Based on our analysis, we found that Ph. papatasi can be active in Iran from March to November, although this may vary depending on the region. Our predictions suggest that the duration of Ph. papatasi’s activity may change following future changes in weather patterns. In different scenarios, the duration of the active season in various regions of the country extends by at least 1–2 months. This extension is likely more pronounced in the southern provinces. Additionally, our findings indicate a notable correlation between ZCL incidence, the presence of Ph. papatasi, and environmental factors in Ardestan, Esfahan Province. This study focuses on the impact of temperature on the activity and distribution of Ph. papatasi in Iran, which is a significant vector for transmitting ZCL. The study predicts that with future climate scenarios, especially SSP5-8.5, the activity of this vector will start earlier, last longer, and might even occur throughout the year by the 2050s, thereby increasing the risk of ZCL transmission. Although temperature plays a dominant role in shaping the activity of Ph. papatasi, its influence is not consistent across Iran. The variation in different regions emphasizes the importance of implementing targeted public health approaches to address the changing risks of ZCL transmission due to evolving climate conditions. However, it acknowledges that certain factors such as land use and humidity have not been taken into account and requests additional research in these areas. It also calls for enhanced environmental monitoring and public health interventions.

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来源期刊
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 农林科学-传染病学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
9.30%
发文量
350
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions): Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread. Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope. Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies. Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies). Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.
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