People who deviate from group norms pose problems for their ingroup, but not all forms of deviance are equivalent. Six experiments (N = 1,653) investigated lay understandings of subjective group dynamics by assessing people's beliefs about how others would perceive two types of deviants within U.S. political parties—political moderates and extremes. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants thought Democrats and Republicans, respectively, would show less approval of a moderate ingroup political candidate than an extreme ingroup political candidate. Experiment 3 demonstrated that participants thought Democrats would show less approval of a moderate Democratic campaign volunteer than an extreme Democratic campaign volunteer. Experiments 4 and 5 replicated Experiments 1 and 2 in ideologically diverse samples. Experiment 6 extended these findings by demonstrating that people's expectation that Republicans will show less approval of moderate ingroup members than extreme ingroup members extends to rank-and-file party members. People intuitively understand subjective group dynamics and this understanding may have important consequences for political behavior and discourse.