How Well Do AMIP6 and CMIP6 Reproduce the Specific Extreme El Niño Teleconnections to North America?

Abstract

Extreme El Niño events (e.g., 1982–1983, 1997–1998) are characterized by strong, eastward-shifted warm Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, and a southward migration of the eastern Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the equator. Using an ensemble simulation with a single AMIP6 model, Beniche et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-52580-9) suggested that such events uniquely yield an eastward shift of the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, with specific impacts over North America. Here, we first examine the robustness of these results in 135 ensemble members from 23 different AMIP6 models. The specific, eastward-shifted extreme El Niño teleconnection pattern is robust in all models but one. It is also highly reproducible across years and ensemble members, due to stronger teleconnection amplitude than that of internal atmospheric noise. This yields specific, predictable impacts (defined as $>$ 0.5 STD) such as warm conditions over Northeast America (69% chances), and wet anomalies over California (77%) and Florida (97%). We then show that 26 out of the 42 CMIP6 models we examined reproduce extreme El Niño events, defined as El Niño events associated with large eastern Pacific rainfall anomalies. These models tend to have a weaker cold tongue bias than the rest of CMIP6. Despite a degradation in performance from AMIP6 to CMIP6, 18 out of the 26 selected models capture the specific extreme El Niño teleconnections, albeit with some underestimation of wet anomalies over California and Florida. We end by discussing implications for future North American climate projections based on CMIP6.