Geopolitics along the value chains

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS 中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102341

Renjing Chen , Chenxin Jin , Wei Jin , Bin Sheng , Guanxiang Wang

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Abstract

This paper examines the intricate interplay between geopolitics and global value chains (GVCs) in shaping international trade dynamics. By developing indices of voting similarity from United Nations General Assembly data, we quantify the influence of geopolitical relationships on trade flows and economic welfare. Utilizing a structural approach grounded in the World Input–Output Database, we estimate the elasticity of geopolitics across various sectors, distinguishing between intermediate goods and final consumption. Our findings reveal significant trade and welfare implications of geopolitical relationships, highlighting how political alignment or discord influences economic outcomes across countries. Through counterfactual analyses, we explore scenarios such as the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, the Russo–Ukrainian War, and the China–United States Trade Disputes, providing insights into how geopolitical shifts could reshape GVCs and economic performance globally. The results underscore the importance of considering geopolitical factors in trade policy and economic strategy formulation.

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价值链上的地缘政治

本文探讨了地缘政治和全球价值链（GVCs）在塑造国际贸易动态方面的复杂相互作用。通过从联合国大会数据中开发投票相似性指数，我们量化了地缘政治关系对贸易流动和经济福利的影响。利用基于世界投入产出数据库的结构性方法，我们估计了不同部门的地缘政治弹性，区分了中间产品和最终消费。我们的研究结果揭示了地缘政治关系对贸易和福利的重大影响，强调了政治结盟或不和谐如何影响各国的经济结果。通过反事实分析，我们探讨了巴以冲突、俄乌战争和中美贸易争端等情景，为地缘政治变化如何重塑全球价值链和全球经济表现提供了见解。研究结果强调了在制定贸易政策和经济战略时考虑地缘政治因素的重要性。

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.