Deconstructing complex micro-level migration activity in a rural municipality

Abstract

Focusing on quantifying changes in migration heterogeneity and population concentration, this paper presents a methodology for analyzing complex migration activity by combining aggregated and address-level data. Counterurbanization, conceptualized as the transition of a settlement system from a state of concentration to one of deconcentration, serves as the overarching theoretical framework for understanding migration activity. The primary aim of this study is to outline the fundamentals of a quantitative spatial decision support system tailored for a Danish rural municipality. The originality of this research lies in the use of an unprecedentedly low level of abstraction for migration analysis – capturing every single migration event within an entire municipality covering almost two decades. This includes attributes such as age cohort, former municipality of residence, prior affiliation to the destination municipality, and more. The findings challenge the prevailing narrative on rural migration patterns in Denmark. Contrary to expectations of urbanization or counterurbanization, the rural municipality studied has experienced neither. Instead, population depletion from rural areas has led to an increase in urban population concentration relative to the remaining overall population. Furthermore, the age distribution of migration activity has become increasingly skewed, with prior affiliation emerging as a decisive factor for retaining in-migrants.