Freezing or searing: Unraveling the impact of extreme temperatures on poverty in China

Abstract

We examine the nonlinear effects of temperature extremes on poverty in China from 2000 to 2020 using county-level panel data and temperature bins. The empirical strategy exploits within-country variation to isolate the impacts of heat waves and cold spells. We find extreme heat above 30 °C significantly increases poverty rates, while extreme cold below −12 °C reduces poverty. The impacts vary across counties with different industry focus and income levels. Agricultural mechanization, output, urbanization, industrial output, and health impacts are identified as significant mediating factors. The simulation results under the four pathways of the GFDL-ESM4 model indicate that the predicted increase in high-temperature days will aggravate county-level poverty, according to both medium-term (2021–2060) and long-term (2061–2100) projections. In particular, projections based on high fossil fuel energy consumption pathways suggest greater shocks to county-level economic development. Our results underscore the need for social security, rural development, and ecological adaptation policies to mitigate climate-induced poverty risks in China. This study provides new county-level evidence on the heterogeneous effects of climate extremes on poverty.