Performance of renewable systems hybridized with the most promising SMR designs for the full economy decarbonization using hydrogen and electricity for standalone systems, the Canary Islands in 2040

Abstract

The transition towards clean energies is essential to achieve the goal of complete decarbonization of the economy by mid-century. Renewable energies are and will be a significant consideration in future generation MIX, even though these systems have not yet fully demonstrated their suitability to operate autonomously in isolated areas with high demands. Specifically, significant oversizing of both the generation and storage systems when relying solely on renewables is needed. Therefore, this document assesses the performance of three systems in the Canary Archipelago, with projected electric demands of approximately 12 TWh/year and hydrogen demands of around 230,000 tH₂/year. In pursuit of this objective, the archipelago faces social, environmental, and economic challenges in overcoming the profound shift from a fossil fuel-dependent economy to a carbon-free one. Scenario modeling reveals that new SMRs, combined with notable contributions from renewable energies, are both technically feasible and economically viable. Levelized Costs ranging between 70–84 €/MWh are reached. These findings confirm the feasibility of an autonomous, reliable, and completely GHG-free system to produce electricity and hydrogen without relying on fossil fuels. Moreover, the proposed systems exhibit an extraordinarily low energy wastage (approximately 7–9%) despite being fully independent, off-grid setups with a substantial share of renewable energies.