Evaluation of transport carbon efficiency, reduction potential, and influencing factors in Africa

Abstract

Africa aims to promote low emission development pathways. As the second-highest CO₂ emitting sector and contributing to an annual average pollution cost of 6.14% of GDP, the transport sector poses a major barrier to sustainable growth. Enhancing transport carbon emission efficiency is essential for achieving both sustainable growth and emission reduction; however, empirical insights regarding Africa remain limited. Therefore, this study employs non-parametric metafrontier technique to asses transport carbon efficiency, reduction potentials, and sources of emission reduction potentials across forty African countries from 2000 to 2020. Panel regression is employed to identify external factors influencing regional carbon efficiency. The findings reveal that transport carbon efficiency (TCE) in Africa averages 0.372, indicating low performance. Central Africa leads the continent's optimal green production technology based on the technology gap ratio, closely followed by Southern Africa. Moreover, the potential for CO₂ emission reduction is estimated at 74.479 % of total TCE, averaging 5583.649 kt annually. Over two-thirds of the emission reduction potential is attributed to addressing management inefficiencies. External influencing factors on TCE exhibit regional heterogeneity. Transport value-added per capita improves TCE in all regions, while energy intensity and renewable energy diminishes it. Sulphur content in diesel, urbanization, institutional quality, business relations, structural change, and FDI have mixed effects. The findings underscore the need for targeted policies to boost carbon efficiency and align transport planning with regional priorities.