Non-stationary response of complex ecosystem service networks to urbanization: Evidence from a typical eco-fragile area in China

Abstract

Understanding the complex interactions between urbanization and ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for optimizing planning policies and achieving sustainable urban management. While previous research has largely focused on highly urbanized areas, little attention has been given to the phased effect of progressive urbanization on ES networks. This study proposes a conceptual framework that utilizes the network method and space-time replacement to examine the effect of urbanization on the complex relationships among ESs at different stages, with a particular emphasis on the progressive evolution of the process. We apply this framework to the Horqin area, a typical eco-fragile area in China. Results demonstrate that the connectivity of the ES synergy network exhibits a non-stationary characteristic, initially increasing, then decreasing, and subsequently strengthening. Meanwhile, its modularity shows a rising trend during periods of accelerated urbanization. The performance of the trade-off network displays the opposite pattern. Additionally, we observe a gradual replacement of provisioning and regulation services by cultural services in terms of dominance in the synergy network as urbanization advances. By providing guidance for identifying key planning initiatives and implementing ecological protection policies at different stages of development, this study contributes a pathway that can inform development strategies in other regions undergoing progressive urbanization.