An integrated ordered logit and latent variable model for accident injury severity and risk-taking behavior

IF 6.8 1区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-10 DOI:10.1016/j.tra.2024.104330

Nicola Ortelli , Matthieu de Lapparent , Silvia F. Varotto , Michel Bierlaire

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Abstract

This study presents a flexible model for risk-taking behavior and accident injury severity. It is specifically designed to evaluate the impact of Via Sicura, a Swiss road safety program, on the severity of accident outcomes. Our proposed model treats the risk-taking behavior of each driver as a latent variable that depends on a number of socioeconomic and contextual factors, and whose manifestation can be measured by means of behavioral indicators. The aggregated risk, a central feature of our framework, represents the combined latent risk-taking behaviors among all drivers within an accident and is successfully identified as explanatory of the severity of injuries sustained by all individuals involved. Our findings reveal that Via Sicura’s repressive measures successfully deter risk-taking behavior among drivers, preventing an estimated 63 fatal, 876 major and 2,303 minor injuries over a ten-year period.

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事故伤害严重程度与冒险行为的综合有序logit和潜变量模型

本研究提出了一个灵活的冒险行为和事故伤害严重程度模型。它是专门为评估瑞士道路安全计划Via Sicura对事故后果严重程度的影响而设计的。我们提出的模型将每个驾驶员的冒险行为视为一个潜在变量，该变量取决于许多社会经济和环境因素，其表现可以通过行为指标来衡量。综合风险是我们框架的一个核心特征，它代表了事故中所有驾驶员潜在的冒险行为，并成功地解释了所有相关个体所受伤害的严重程度。我们的研究结果表明，Via Sicura的镇压措施成功地阻止了司机的冒险行为，在十年内防止了大约63起致命事故，876起重大事故和2303起轻伤。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

13.20

自引率

7.80%

发文量

257

审稿时长

9.8 months

期刊介绍： Transportation Research: Part A contains papers of general interest in all passenger and freight transportation modes: policy analysis, formulation and evaluation; planning; interaction with the political, socioeconomic and physical environment; design, management and evaluation of transportation systems. Topics are approached from any discipline or perspective: economics, engineering, sociology, psychology, etc. Case studies, survey and expository papers are included, as are articles which contribute to unification of the field, or to an understanding of the comparative aspects of different systems. Papers which assess the scope for technological innovation within a social or political framework are also published. The journal is international, and places equal emphasis on the problems of industrialized and non-industrialized regions. Part A''s aims and scope are complementary to Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Part C: Emerging Technologies and Part D: Transport and Environment. Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. The complete set forms the most cohesive and comprehensive reference of current research in transportation science.