Unraveling the timber supply chain in the belt and road region: Analyzing embodied timber flows and industrial interconnections

Abstract

Forests are crucial for climate mitigation and sustainable development but are increasingly degraded by international trade, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) region. This study analyzes trade-embodied timber flows in the BRI region from the perspectives of primary inputs and final demands. By examining timber trade dynamics within the BRI region and with global partners, the study uncovers evolving trade characteristics across the supply chain. The BRI region shifted from a net timber exporter with a trade surplus of 6.27 million m³ to a net importer with a trade deficit of 2.94 million m³ in intra-regional trade, while the share of internal primary input-driven imports rose from 91.68 % to 95.87 %. The region shows reliance on primary inputs and lower positioning in the global timber value chain. This study contributes to clarifying forestry supply chain interconnections, and highlighting challenges in sustainable forest management in the BRI region.