Permafrost environment evaluation of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau based on DPSRC theory and system dynamics

Abstract

As the concept of sustainable development continues to evolve, the changes in permafrost environment under the influence of engineering construction and climate change have received more and more attention from scholars at home and abroad. Herein, to solve the dependence of each factor on time and complexity of the interactions among factors in permafrost environment, a comprehensive evaluation model based on Driving Force-Pressure-State-Response-Control (DPSRC) theory and system dynamics (SD) was proposed. This model can evaluate permafrost environment of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau which is effected by climate change (CC), engineering construction (EC), and artificial prevention measures (APM). The evaluation system of permafrost environment was established according to DPSRC theory. Based on SD, a casual loop model and a stock-and-flow model with three subsystem models were established to evaluate permafrost environment. Then, the validity of the comprehensive evaluation model is verified. Chai-Mu Railway was taken as the research section and set whether to use artificial prevention measures (APM) as the simulation condition to obtain the regional permafrost environment evaluation under different scenarios. The evaluation results show that artificial prevention measures (APM) were necessary for regional permafrost environment, special subgrade (thermosyphon subgrade) treatment was more effective than ecological protection investment. This comprehensive evaluation model was objective and reliable, and can provide a basis for the protection and management of permafrost environment in the future.