Can diffusion of telework after COVID-19 sustain shrinking cities? Simulation analysis using a dynamic land-use and transport model

Abstract

Shrinking cities is an essential strategy in developed countries with population declines, but many new problems also arise. In shrinking cities, sustaining their current urban functions into the future is hard, and they may face city collapse. Conversely, the popularity of telework shows the possibility of maintaining urban activities without shrinking. Therefore, to analyze long-term changes in future urban forms and functions, it is necessary to consider the impact of future technological innovations, such as information and communications technology (ICT), on urban activities, too. This study focuses on telework diffusion, which is one of several technological innovations. We analyze and evaluate its long-term impact on shrinking cities using the land use and transportation model “MARS.” Consequently, it was clarified that even though telework diffusion is difficult to sustain in shrinking cities, governments and municipalities must respond to these negative aspects as telework becomes more widespread for future sustainable shrinking cities.