Siyu Ren , Xinbao Liu , Lin Zhu , Ping Fan , Chaolu Song , Kai Zhang , Jie Chen , Hongtao Chen
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
With the Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) model and probability theory, this study dealt with the reliable prediction of creep rupture time for P91 heat-resistant steel. Firstly, the WCS model parameters were calibrated using creep test data of P91 steel, and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of which were determined. Then, the sources of uncertainties were incorporated into the model through calibrated the PDFs by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. Consequently, the short-term and long-term creep rupture times of P91 steel were predicted using the probabilistic WCS model, respectively. The obtained results suggested that due to the complex uncertainties, the proposition of the probabilistic model offers an effective tool to predict the bounds of long-term creep rupture time for steels in particular.
期刊介绍：
Pressure vessel engineering technology is of importance in many branches of industry. This journal publishes the latest research results and related information on all its associated aspects, with particular emphasis on the structural integrity assessment, maintenance and life extension of pressurised process engineering plants.
The anticipated coverage of the International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping ranges from simple mass-produced pressure vessels to large custom-built vessels and tanks. Pressure vessels technology is a developing field, and contributions on the following topics will therefore be welcome:
• Pressure vessel engineering
• Structural integrity assessment
• Design methods
• Codes and standards
• Fabrication and welding
• Materials properties requirements
• Inspection and quality management
• Maintenance and life extension
• Ageing and environmental effects
• Life management
Of particular importance are papers covering aspects of significant practical application which could lead to major improvements in economy, reliability and useful life. While most accepted papers represent the results of original applied research, critical reviews of topical interest by world-leading experts will also appear from time to time.
International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping is indispensable reading for engineering professionals involved in the energy, petrochemicals, process plant, transport, aerospace and related industries; for manufacturers of pressure vessels and ancillary equipment; and for academics pursuing research in these areas.
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