Graham Gardner , Kayleigh McCrary , Melissa K. Spencer
{"title":"Abortion ballot measures affect election outcomes","authors":"Graham Gardner , Kayleigh McCrary , Melissa K. Spencer","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112182","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates lost fewer than predicted seats and stymied an expected red wave. News coverage and polling data represent this surprise Democratic success as a result of voters’ response to the Supreme Court overturning <em>Roe v. Wade</em>. Using county-level vote data, we find that the decrease in Republican vote margin in 2022 can be explained by demographic and economic factors. However, relative to the national average, the Republican vote margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points more in states with abortion-related ballot measures. Our results indicate that abortion ballot measures have effects on election outcomes of a magnitude large enough to determine competitive races.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112182"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525000199","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates lost fewer than predicted seats and stymied an expected red wave. News coverage and polling data represent this surprise Democratic success as a result of voters’ response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Using county-level vote data, we find that the decrease in Republican vote margin in 2022 can be explained by demographic and economic factors. However, relative to the national average, the Republican vote margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points more in states with abortion-related ballot measures. Our results indicate that abortion ballot measures have effects on election outcomes of a magnitude large enough to determine competitive races.
期刊介绍：
Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.
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