Safety assessment of explosion fragment projection in a wind field

Abstract

Risk assessment plays a crucial role in the arrangement design of storage vessels with flammable fuels or explosible chemicals. Underestimating the safety distance between vessels may lead to a domino catastrophe caused by scattered fragments from an unexpected explosion: an individual explosion resulting in a chain of explosions. In this work, we proposed a general mathematical model to study the fragment trajectory after explosion, with a focus on how the trajectory is affected by wind. Considering the wind effect in the proposed model, we predicted the fragment trajectory and probability distribution by solving the equations of motion for a projectile in the quadratic-resistant medium. Our results show that the maximum projection distance of the fragment varies linearly with the wind speed and increases nonlinearly with the explosion energy. Also, the derived probability distribution of scattering fragments aids in estimating safety distances between vessels with explosive fuel, providing a guideline for the risk assessment for vessel arrangement.