Assessing vulnerability and climate risk to agriculture for developing resilient farming strategies in the Ganges Delta

Abstract

The Ganges Delta supports a unique coastal ecosystem that is highly susceptible to global climate change. This paper presents results from a study on climate change impacts on coastal agriculture in the deltaic regions of Bangladesh and India. The study examined how risk emerges from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Climate hazards for the 89 administrative units (upazila in Bangladesh and block in India) were assessed using future climate data from the IPCC’s 6th assessment report. Hazard levels were assessed by integrating the impacts of four temperature extremes and five rainfall extremes critical to crop growth. Through an extensive literature review, 18 biophysical and socio-economic variables were identified as critical and policy-relevant, including three related to exposure and 15 to vulnerability. All indicators were normalized to a dimensionless scale ranging from 0 to 1 for use in vulnerability and risk assessments. Three upazilas in Bangladesh were classified as being under very high climate hazard. The exposure score was found to be relatively higher along Indian coast compared to Bangladesh coast. Among the 89 administrative units analyzed, five upazilas in Bangladesh and two blocks in India were identified under very high vulnerability index, covering 18.6% the area and 8.13% of the total population. When combining vulnerability and climate hazard, three upazilas in Bangladesh and one block in India were identified under very high risk to agriculture. These findings provide a practical framework for developing sustainable agricultural strategies and addressing climate risks in the Ganges Delta and other similar coastal ecosystems worldwide.