Towards clean energy technologies: Assessing the supply potential of critical rare earth elements in China

Abstract

The rapid development of clean energy technologies will significantly increase the demand for rare earth elements (REEs). REEs such as dysprosium, terbium, praseodymium, and neodymium play an irreplaceable role in clean energy technologies like wind power equipment and electric vehicles. China is an important country for the supply of rare earths. Consequently, assessing China's supply potential and future trends of critical REEs is imperative. Considering the resource reserves, historical supply and the production characteristics of rare earth elements, we incorporated the parameter optimization algorithms into the multicyclic Generalized Weng model to obtain the production of critical REEs in China and quantify the supply potential. Our findings indicate that the supply potential of dysprosium peaks in 2030 at 15,900 tons (rare earth oxide equivalent), while terbium peaks in 2041 at 7,641 tons. Additionally, praseodymium will reach 7,606 tons in 2060 and neodymium will reach 33,560 tons in 2060, with peaks occurring after 2060. Compared with actual demand, it is found that there will be a supply shortage of dysprosium, neodymium, and praseodymium elements, and terbium will also face insufficient supply under high-demand scenarios. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed to enhance REEs’ supply capabilities.